Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 11, 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · at Mavericks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Mavericks
WSH	This season	DAL
3-3	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	4-2
1-5	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 120–112 · win probability DAL 72%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

WSH 2, DAL 7 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, DAL 21.4. Allowed: WSH 21.8, DAL 27.2

DALBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, DAL 69.4%

DALBig

WSH offense vs DAL defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings

DALSmall

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 37.6% and 42.1% of their shots

DALSmall

DAL offense vs WSH defense

Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

DALSmall

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6

WSHSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, DAL 14.5%

DALSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3

DALSmall

Home court

DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
DAL WLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: WSH away; DAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
DAL UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
DALlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 14	@ MIN	L115–141LO
Mar 16	vs NY	L113–145LO
Mar 18	vs PHI	L131–153LO

Mavericks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 13	vs NO	L111–129LU
Mar 15	vs ATL	L120–135LO
Mar 17	@ OKC	W120–96WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

WSH 5–5 DALSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · WSH 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2025-26	DAL 111 @ WSH 105	WSH +4.5	DAL W
Oct 24, 2025-26	WSH 117 @ DAL 107	DAL -9.5	WSH W
Jan 27, 2024-25	WSH 108 @ DAL 130	DAL -13.5	DAL W
Dec 5, 2024-25	DAL 137 @ WSH 101	WSH +13.5	DAL W
Feb 12, 2023-24	WSH 104 @ DAL 112	DAL -12.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mavericks

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@HOU	L 110-128	+9.5	L −8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@IND	W 121-105	+7.5	W +23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 24	vsSA	L 106-122	+14.5	L −1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 26	@MIA	W 113-109	+7.5	W +11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	vsOKC	W 120-96	+4.5	W +28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 30	vsHOU	W 116-111	+5.5	W +10.5	223.5	O 227

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

−8.5

IND

W 121-105

+23.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

+11.5

OKC

W 120-96

+28.5

HOU

W 116-111

+10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

+7.5

IND

W 121-105

−15.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

−18.5

OKC

W 120-96

−11.5

HOU

W 116-111

+3.5

over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mavericks has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 1, Mavericks 2, even 2

WizardsBetterMavericks

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

Even

G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

DALBig

F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

WSHBig

F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

DALSmall

F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46

WizardsBetterMavericks

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

DALSmall

DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

DALSmall

DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

DALBig

Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

DALBig

Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

DALBig

Bench+2.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Mavericks

Guards

M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min

Forwards

P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min

Centers

M. Cisse14 min

Out

S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

DAL114.3 #14

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

DAL1.12 #11

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

DAL102.8 #18

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

DAL56.9 #2

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

DAL35.1 #14

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

DAL42.1 #18

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

DAL21.4 #29

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

DAL16.8 #23

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

DAL27.8 #13

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

DAL27.0 #12

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

DAL111.8 #14

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

DAL1.08 #13

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

DAL51.3 #9

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

DAL29.7 #2

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

DAL14.5 #24

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

DAL69.4 #25

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

DAL8.8 #16

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

DAL6.8 #2

WSH		DAL
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	114.3 #14
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.12 #11
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	102.8 #18
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	56.9 #2
29.3 #29	3-point %	35.1 #14
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #18
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	21.4 #29
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	16.8 #23
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	27.8 #13
24.5 #24	Assists per game	27.0 #12
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	111.8 #14
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #13
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #9
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	29.7 #2
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	14.5 #24
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	69.4 #25
7.2 #24	Steals per game	8.8 #16
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	6.8 #2

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Rockets116–111
Wvs Thunder120–96
W@ Heat113–109
Lvs Spurs106–122
W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Mavericks

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Mavericks

Mavericks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Mavericks