Phoenix Suns at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 11, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Bulls
PHX	This season	CHI
1-3	Record	1-5
0-4	ATS	3-3
3-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 121–117 · win probability PHX 62%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CHI has more of the edges

PHX 4, CHI 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

PHXBig

PHX offense vs CHI defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHIBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, CHI 38.3. Allowed: PHX 31.1, CHI 33.5

PHXBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, CHI 14.7%

CHIBig

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

CHISmall

CHI offense vs PHX defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

PHXSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

PHXSmall

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 45.1% and 47.9% of their shots

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, PHX 0-2 away

CHISmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, CHI 69.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: PHX away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 13	@ CHA	L107–127LO
Mar 15	@ MEM	W131–105WO
Mar 17	@ LAL	L73–101LU

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 13	vs MEM	L124–125LO
Mar 15	vs ORL	L103–127LU
Mar 17	@ PHI	L137–157LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHX 9–1 CHIPHX leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHX 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 5, 2025-26	PHX 120 @ CHI 110	CHI +11.5	CHI W
Mar 5, 2025-26	CHI 105 @ PHX 103	PHX -10.5	CHI W
Mar 19, 2024-25	CHI 121 @ PHX 127	PHX -5.5	PHX W
Feb 22, 2024-25	PHX 121 @ CHI 117	CHI +5.5	CHI W
Jan 22, 2023-24	CHI 113 @ PHX 115	PHX -5.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Suns has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 2, Bulls 1, even 2

SunsBetterBulls

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXSmall

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

CHISmall

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

Even

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

PHXBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

Even

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

SunsBetterBulls

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

PHXBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

CHISmall

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

PHXBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

CHI5.0 #12

PHX		CHI
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.04 #26
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
35.0 #16	3-point %	28.1 #30
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
27.5 #8	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
9.0 #15	Steals per game	8.7 #17
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Bulls

What could decide it: CHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Bulls

Suns has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Bulls