Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 11, 8:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Hawks
BKN	This season	ATL
1-5	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 120–108 · win probability ATL 81%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

BKN 3, ATL 5 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, ATL 18.3%

ATLBig

ATL offense vs BKN defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

BKN offense vs ATL defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BKNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, ATL 23.4. Allowed: BKN 33.5, ATL 32.1

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, ATL 70.9%

BKNSmall

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, BKN 1-2 away

ATLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

Even

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 48.0% and 44.7% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: BKN away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 13	@ DET	L94–110LU
Mar 15	vs IND	W98–90WU
Mar 17	@ HOU	L96–120LU

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 13	vs ORL	W132–125WO
Mar 15	@ DAL	W135–120WO
Mar 17	@ UTAH	W121–119LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

BKN 9–9 ATLSeries tied · 18 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 5 meetings · BKN 12-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 3, 2025-26	ATL 141 @ BKN 107	BKN +16.5	ATL W
Mar 12, 2025-26	BKN 97 @ ATL 108	ATL -15.5	BKN W
Feb 22, 2025-26	BKN 104 @ ATL 115	ATL -9.5	ATL W
Oct 29, 2025-26	ATL 117 @ BKN 112	BKN +8.5	BKN W
Apr 10, 2024-25	ATL 133 @ BKN 109	BKN +13.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 0, Hawks 4, even 1

NetsBetterHawks

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

ATLBig

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

ATLBig

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

ATLSmall

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

Even

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

ATLSmall

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

NetsBetterHawks

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

ATLBig

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

ATLBig

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

BKNBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

ATLBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

ATL3.7 #29

BKN		ATL
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.10 #16
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
35.1 #15	3-point %	32.8 #22
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
22.8 #28	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
9.0 #14	Steals per game	9.4 #8
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Hawks

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Hawks

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Hawks