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NBA · Thu, Mar 11

76ers @ Spurs

Frost Bank Center · at Spurs
#16PHI76ers
@
#3SASpurs
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PHIThis seasonSA
6-1Record4-2
4-3ATS2-4
2-5O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 116–106 · win probability SA 77%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 221.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

PHI 1, SA 4 · 2026-27 so far
SABig
PHI offense vs SA defense
Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
SABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, SA 75.8%
PHISmall
Three-pointers
PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 39.5% and 39.0% of their shots
SASmall
SA offense vs PHI defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SASmall
Home court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, PHI 3-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, SA 13.1%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, SA 15.7%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, SA 24.5. Allowed: PHI 28.5, SA 21.7
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
Even
Recent form
Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -10.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model221.8
Model edge—
Projected score
PHI 105.7 · SA 116
Win probability
SA 77%
1st half
Spread
SA -5.7
Total
111.3
Projected score
PHI 52.8 · SA 58.5
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Spurs has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 0, Spurs 3, even 2
76ersBetterSpurs
G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67
SASmall
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98
G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35
SASmall
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53
G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96
Even
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84
F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54
SASmall
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69
F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90
Even
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98
76ersBetterSpurs
PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7
SABig
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0
SASmall
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players
SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players
SABig
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench-19.8 · 5 players
SABig
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPHI betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
76ers
Guards
T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min
Forwards
L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min
Centers
A. Bona14 minT. FallNew
Out
J. EmbiidDay-To-Day
Spurs
Guards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PHISA
Scoring
108.7 #23Points per game117.3 #12
1.06 #22Points per possession1.12 #10
102.4 #19Pace (possessions)104.3 #11
Shooting
50.8 #25Effective FG%53.3 #16
34.0 #203-point %34.9 #17
39.5 #233-point attempt rate39.0 #24
28.7 #16Free throw rate24.5 #24
Possessions
12.3 #1Turnover rate13.1 #2
19.9 #30Offensive rebound rate27.2 #16
25.1 #22Assists per game27.5 #9
Defense
104.9 #2Points allowed110.2 #12
1.03 #3Points allowed per possession1.06 #6
49.8 #4Opponent effective FG%52.1 #11
32.1 #9Opponent 3-point %37.3 #23
17.0 #9Turnovers forced15.7 #14
70.8 #21Defensive rebound rate75.8 #7
9.6 #7Steals per game9.2 #10
5.0 #14Blocks per game7.0 #1
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Hornets109–104
  • Wvs Knicks98–93
  • W@ Pacers114–109
  • Lvs Pistons93–106
  • Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Timberwolves121–111
  • W@ Jazz117–111
  • Wvs Kings130–103
  • W@ Mavericks122–106
  • Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.