Paycom Center · at Thunder · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 SA | This season | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 3-3 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 1-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 112–109 · win probability SA 59%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 221.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SA has more of the edges
SA 2, OKC 1 · 2026-27 so far
SABigOKC offense vs SA defense
Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points
OKCSmallHome court
OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, SA 2-0 away
SASmallFree throws
Free throw rate: SA 24.5, OKC 21.8. Allowed: SA 21.7, OKC 23.4
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0
Even
SA offense vs OKC defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, OKC 71.4%
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: SA 15.7%, OKC 15.8%
Even
Three-pointers
SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 39.0% and 35.8% of their shots
Even
Recent form
Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -3.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model221.7
Model edge—
Projected score
SA 112.4 · OKC 109.3
Win probability
SA 59%
1st half
Spread
SA -1.9
Total
111.3
Projected score
SA 56.6 · OKC 54.7
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
| OKClast 6 | 4-2 67% | 3-3 50% | 1-5 17% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 27 since 2021-22
SA 13–14 OKCOKC leads · 27 games since 2021-22 · SA 12-14-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026-27 | OKC 116 @ SA 104 | SA +1.5 | OKC W |
| May 30, 2025-26 | SA 111 @ OKC 103 | OKC -3.5 | SA W |
| May 28, 2025-26 | OKC 91 @ SA 118 | SA -3.5 | SA W |
| May 26, 2025-26 | SA 114 @ OKC 127 | OKC -3.5 | OKC W |
| May 24, 2025-26 | OKC 82 @ SA 103 | SA -2.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Thunder
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-5
17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
@SA
SAW 116-104
+10.5
22
vs
DEN
DENW 96-84
+4.5
25
vs
LAC
LACW 108-101
−9.5
26
vs
PHX
PHXW 125-114
+2.5
28
@DAL
DALL 96-120
−28.5
31
@HOU
HOUL 98-119
−18.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
@SA
SAW 116-104
−9.5
22
vsDEN
DENW 96-84
−56.5
25
vsLAC
LACW 108-101
−14.5
26
vsPHX
PHXW 125-114
+17.5
28
@DAL
DALL 96-120
−11.5
31
@HOU
HOUL 98-119
−2.5
over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Spurs 2, Thunder 1, even 2
SpursBetterThunder
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
=Even
G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 88
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
→OKCBig
G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast
Score 99
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
←SABig
G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 8
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
←SASmall
G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 40
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
=Even
C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast
Score 88
SpursBetterThunder
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
=Even
OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
←SABig
OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
←SABig
Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
←SABig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
←SABig
Bench-4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSA betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
ThunderGuards
S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min
Forwards
J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min
Centers
I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min
Out
A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
SA117.3 #12OKC106.5 #29Points per possession
SA1.12 #10OKC1.05 #23Pace (possessions)
SA104.3 #11OKC101.1 #27Shooting
Effective FG%
SA53.3 #16OKC49.5 #283-point %
SA34.9 #17OKC30.9 #263-point attempt rate
SA39.0 #24OKC35.8 #29Free throw rate
SA24.5 #24OKC21.8 #28Possessions
Turnover rate
SA13.1 #2OKC14.5 #7Offensive rebound rate
SA27.2 #16OKC28.5 #10Assists per game
SA27.5 #9OKC21.7 #29Defense
Points allowed
SA110.2 #12OKC107.0 #5Points allowed per possession
SA1.06 #6OKC1.06 #7Opponent effective FG%
SA52.1 #11OKC51.0 #6Opponent 3-point %
SA37.3 #23OKC35.3 #17Turnovers forced
SA15.7 #14OKC15.8 #13Defensive rebound rate
SA75.8 #7OKC71.4 #18Steals per game
SA9.2 #10OKC8.3 #20Blocks per game
SA7.0 #1OKC6.3 #7| SA | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 117.3 #12 | Points per game | 106.5 #29 |
| 1.12 #10 | Points per possession | 1.05 #23 |
| 104.3 #11 | Pace (possessions) | 101.1 #27 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.3 #16 | Effective FG% | 49.5 #28 |
| 34.9 #17 | 3-point % | 30.9 #26 |
| 39.0 #24 | 3-point attempt rate | 35.8 #29 |
| 24.5 #24 | Free throw rate | 21.8 #28 |
| Possessions | ||
| 13.1 #2 | Turnover rate | 14.5 #7 |
| 27.2 #16 | Offensive rebound rate | 28.5 #10 |
| 27.5 #9 | Assists per game | 21.7 #29 |
| Defense | ||
| 110.2 #12 | Points allowed | 107.0 #5 |
| 1.06 #6 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #7 |
| 52.1 #11 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.0 #6 |
| 37.3 #23 | Opponent 3-point % | 35.3 #17 |
| 15.7 #14 | Turnovers forced | 15.8 #13 |
| 75.8 #7 | Defensive rebound rate | 71.4 #18 |
| 9.2 #10 | Steals per game | 8.3 #20 |
| 7.0 #1 | Blocks per game | 6.3 #7 |
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.
Thunder
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Rockets98–119
- L@ Mavericks96–120
- Wvs Suns125–114
- Wvs Clippers108–101
- Wvs Nuggets96–84
A week or more of rest.