Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 11, 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Grizzlies and Celtics
MEM	This season	BOS
6-0	Record	5-1
6-0	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 118–108 · win probability BOS 77%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MEM 4, BOS 4 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, BOS 68.4%

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 42.1% and 45.9% of their shots

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, BOS 17.8%

BOSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, BOS 32.3. Allowed: MEM 31.4, BOS 31.7

MEMSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

BOSSmall

MEM offense vs BOS defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, MEM 4-0 away

Even

BOS offense vs MEM defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MEM away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 13	@ CHI	W125–124WO
Mar 15	vs PHX	L105–131LO
Mar 17	@ GS	W111–108WU

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 12	vs OKC	W119–109WO
Mar 14	@ NY	W107–103WU
Mar 16	vs SAC	W112–93WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MEM 1–9 BOSBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 3 meetings · MEM 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 20, 2025-26	BOS 117 @ MEM 112	MEM +15.5	MEM W
Nov 12, 2025-26	MEM 95 @ BOS 131	BOS -8.5	BOS W
Mar 31, 2024-25	BOS 117 @ MEM 103	MEM +2.5	BOS W
Dec 7, 2024-25	MEM 127 @ BOS 121	BOS -7.5	MEM W
Feb 4, 2023-24	MEM 91 @ BOS 131	BOS -19.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 2, Celtics 1, even 2

GrizzliesBetterCeltics

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

Even

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

Even

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

BOSBig

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

MEMSmall

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

MEMSmall

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

GrizzliesBetterCeltics

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

BOSSmall

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

Even

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

Even

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM121.2 #1

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

MEM1.16 #4

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

MEM103.6 #13

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM55.9 #5

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

MEM41.7 #1

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

MEM42.1 #19

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

MEM25.3 #22

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM15.4 #16

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

MEM30.6 #5

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

MEM27.0 #13

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

MEM106.0 #3

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.03 #2

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

MEM49.2 #3

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.0 #3

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

MEM15.7 #15

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

MEM75.0 #9

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

MEM6.3 #28

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

MEM5.2 #11

BOS4.0 #25

MEM		BOS
Scoring
121.2 #1	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.16 #4	Points per possession	1.15 #6
103.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
55.9 #5	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
41.7 #1	3-point %	35.5 #10
42.1 #19	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
25.3 #22	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
15.4 #16	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
30.6 #5	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
27.0 #13	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
106.0 #3	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.03 #2	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
49.2 #3	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
30.0 #3	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
15.7 #15	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
75.0 #9	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
6.3 #28	Steals per game	9.2 #9
5.2 #11	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies @ Celtics

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Grizzlies

Celtics

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Grizzlies

Celtics