Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Mar 12, 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Celtics
OKC	This season	BOS
4-2	Record	5-1
3-3	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 112–106 · win probability BOS 66%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 218.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

OKC 2, BOS 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSBig

OKC offense vs BOS defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

OKCBig

BOS offense vs OKC defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 35.8% and 45.9% of their shots

BOSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

OKCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, BOS 68.4%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, BOS 17.8%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, BOS 32.3. Allowed: OKC 23.4, BOS 31.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: OKC away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 14	vs SA	W116–104WU
Mar 16	vs CHA	L97–124LU
Mar 17	vs DAL	L96–120LU

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 14	@ NY	W107–103WU
Mar 16	vs SAC	W112–93WU
Mar 18	vs ORL	W108–97WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

OKC 5–5 BOSSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 25, 2025-26	OKC 109 @ BOS 119	BOS +2.5	BOS W
Mar 12, 2025-26	BOS 102 @ OKC 104	OKC -8.5	BOS W
Mar 12, 2024-25	OKC 118 @ BOS 112	BOS -2.5	OKC W
Jan 5, 2024-25	BOS 92 @ OKC 105	OKC -0.5	OKC W
Apr 3, 2023-24	OKC 100 @ BOS 135	BOS -12.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Thunder 2, Celtics 2, even 1

ThunderBetterCeltics

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

Even

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCSmall

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

BOSBig

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

BOSSmall

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCSmall

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

ThunderBetterCeltics

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

BOSBig

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCBig

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

BOS4.0 #25

OKC		BOS
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.15 #6
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
30.9 #26	3-point %	35.5 #10
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
21.7 #29	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
8.3 #20	Steals per game	9.2 #9
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Celtics

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Celtics