Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Mar 12, 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Bucks · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Bucks
MIA	This season	MIL
2-4	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 122–116 · win probability MIA 66%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MIA 3, MIL 3 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs MIL defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, MIL 12.2%

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, MIL 74.2%

MIABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, MIL 23.9. Allowed: MIA 23.2, MIL 29.7

MILSmall

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 41.7% and 45.9% of their shots

MILSmall

Home court

MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, MIA 1-1 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points

Even

MIL offense vs MIA defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: MIA away; MIL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 14	@ DEN	W147–123WO
Mar 17	@ POR	L110–127LO
Mar 19	@ PHX	W111–102WU

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 16	vs ORL	L91–130LO
Mar 18	vs DET	L111–137LO
Mar 20	vs IND	W110–102WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 23 since 2021-22

MIA 11–12 MILMIL leads · 23 games since 2021-22 · MIA 10-12-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 12, 2025-26	MIL 105 @ MIA 112	MIA -5.5	MIA W
Feb 24, 2025-26	MIA 117 @ MIL 128	MIL +6.5	MIL W
Nov 26, 2025-26	MIL 103 @ MIA 106	MIA -10.5	MIL W
Apr 5, 2024-25	MIL 121 @ MIA 115	MIA -0.5	MIL W
Feb 23, 2024-25	MIA 113 @ MIL 120	MIL -3.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 4, Bucks 0, even 1

HeatBetterBucks

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

MIABig

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

MIASmall

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

MIABig

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

MIASmall

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

Even

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

HeatBetterBucks

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIABig

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

Even

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

MIABig

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

MILSmall

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

MIL113.0 #17

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

MIL1.07 #20

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

MIL106.2 #4

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

MIL52.0 #21

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

MIL33.9 #21

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

MIL45.9 #8

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

MIL23.9 #25

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

MIL15.8 #18

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

MIL29.7 #8

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

MIL26.0 #20

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

MIL126.2 #28

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

MIL1.18 #28

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

MIL55.4 #24

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

MIL34.9 #14

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

MIL12.2 #30

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

MIL74.2 #10

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

MIL5.7 #30

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

MIL4.0 #27

MIA		MIL
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	113.0 #17
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.07 #20
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #4
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	52.0 #21
34.1 #19	3-point %	33.9 #21
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #8
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	23.9 #25
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	15.8 #18
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #8
28.8 #3	Assists per game	26.0 #20
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	126.2 #28
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #28
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #24
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #14
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	12.2 #30
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	74.2 #10
8.3 #19	Steals per game	5.7 #30
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	4.0 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Bucks

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Bucks

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Bucks