Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 14, 7:30 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Nuggets
MIA	This season	DEN
2-4	Record	3-2
2-4	ATS	2-3
3-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 122–117 · win probability DEN 62%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 239.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

MIA 2, DEN 5 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs DEN defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

DEN offense vs MIA defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 41.7% and 40.9% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, DEN 31.3. Allowed: MIA 23.2, DEN 21.5

MIASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, DEN 15.9%

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, MIA 1-1 away

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, DEN 70.5%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: MIA away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 17	@ POR	L110–127LO
Mar 19	@ PHX	W111–102WU
Mar 21	vs DEN	W147–123WO

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 16	@ LAC	L114–115LO
Mar 18	vs CLE	L117–119LU
Mar 20	@ ORL	L126–127LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 15 since 2021-22

MIA 2–13 DENDEN leads · 15 games since 2021-22 · MIA 4-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 29, 2025-26	DEN 123 @ MIA 147	MIA +1.5	MIA W
Nov 5, 2025-26	MIA 112 @ DEN 122	DEN -9.5	DEN W
Jan 17, 2024-25	DEN 133 @ MIA 113	MIA +3.5	DEN W
Nov 8, 2024-25	MIA 122 @ DEN 135	DEN -3.5	DEN W
Mar 13, 2023-24	DEN 100 @ MIA 88	MIA +3.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 1, Nuggets 3, even 1

HeatBetterNuggets

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

Even

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

DENBig

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

MIASmall

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

DENBig

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

DENSmall

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

HeatBetterNuggets

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIABig

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

DENBig

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

MIASmall

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

DEN4.4 #18

MIA		DEN
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.13 #9
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
34.1 #19	3-point %	37.4 #7
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
28.8 #3	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
8.3 #19	Steals per game	10.2 #5
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Nuggets