Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 14, 6:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Kings
CLE	This season	SAC
4-2	Record	0-6
2-4	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 125–112 · win probability CLE 82%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 236.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CLE 7, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs SAC defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 43.6% and 38.0% of their shots

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, SAC 26.4. Allowed: CLE 23.2, SAC 31.2

CLESmall

SAC offense vs CLE defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

CLESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, SAC 14.6%

CLESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, SAC 73.7%

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: CLE away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 16	@ GS	W118–111LU
Mar 18	@ DEN	W119–117WU
Mar 20	vs CHI	W115–110LU

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 16	@ BOS	L93–112LU
Mar 17	@ NY	L87–103LU
Mar 19	@ TOR	W123–115WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CLE 5–5 SACSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 2 meetings · CLE 2-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 7, 2025-26	CLE 132 @ SAC 126	SAC +12.5	SAC W
Jan 23, 2025-26	SAC 118 @ CLE 123	CLE -13.5	SAC W
Apr 6, 2024-25	SAC 120 @ CLE 113	CLE -9.5	SAC W
Mar 19, 2024-25	CLE 119 @ SAC 123	SAC +6.5	SAC W
Feb 5, 2023-24	SAC 110 @ CLE 136	CLE -4.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 5, Kings 0, even 0

CavaliersBetterKings

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

CLEBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLEBig

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLEBig

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

CLESmall

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLEBig

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

CavaliersBetterKings

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLEBig

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

CLESmall

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

SAC2.3 #30

CLE		SAC
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.03 #28
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
37.0 #8	3-point %	30.4 #27
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
28.7 #4	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
7.8 #22	Steals per game	8.0 #21
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Kings

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Kings

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Kings