Toronto Raptors at New Orleans Pelicans: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Mar 12, 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · at Pelicans

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Pelicans
TOR	This season	NO
3-3	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	4-2
3-3	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 118–114 · win probability TOR 60%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

TOR 4, NO 5 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, NO 17.4%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, NO 16.3%

NOBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, NO 35.3. Allowed: TOR 41.5, NO 30.6

TORBig

TOR offense vs NO defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, NO 76.4%

NOSmall

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 38.1% and 32.8% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOSmall

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8

NOSmall

Home court

NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, TOR 1-2 away

TORSmall

NO offense vs TOR defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: TOR away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 14	vs DET	L116–127LO
Mar 15	@ PHI	L102–115LU
Mar 18	@ IND	W122–104WU

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 13	@ DAL	W129–111WU
Mar 16	vs MIN	L126–132LO
Mar 18	vs CHA	L95–102LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

TOR 5–5 NOSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · TOR 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 27, 2025-26	NO 106 @ TOR 119	TOR -8.5	TOR W
Mar 11, 2025-26	TOR 111 @ NO 122	NO +2.5	NO W
Jan 27, 2024-25	NO 104 @ TOR 113	TOR -0.5	TOR W
Nov 27, 2024-25	TOR 119 @ NO 93	NO -0.5	TOR W
Mar 5, 2023-24	NO 139 @ TOR 98	TOR +9.5	NO W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 1, Pelicans 0, even 4

RaptorsBetterPelicans

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

Even

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

TORBig

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

Even

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

Even

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

Even

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

RaptorsBetterPelicans

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

TORSmall

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

Even

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

NO119.7 #7

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

NO1.10 #15

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

NO108.0 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

NO55.1 #9

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

NO31.2 #25

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

NO32.8 #30

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

NO35.3 #4

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

NO17.4 #26

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

NO24.3 #25

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

NO25.5 #21

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

NO117.8 #24

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

NO1.09 #16

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

NO54.2 #21

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

NO30.5 #5

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

NO16.3 #10

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

NO76.4 #6

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

NO13.7 #1

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

NO4.8 #16

TOR		NO
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	119.7 #7
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.10 #15
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	108.0 #2
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	55.1 #9
32.0 #24	3-point %	31.2 #25
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #30
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	35.3 #4
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	17.4 #26
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	24.3 #25
29.2 #2	Assists per game	25.5 #21
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	117.8 #24
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #16
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #21
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #5
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	16.3 #10
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	76.4 #6
12.7 #2	Steals per game	13.7 #1
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	4.8 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Pelicans

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Pelicans

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Pelicans