Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MIL | This season | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 5-1 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 5-1 |
| 5-1 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DET 121–104 · win probability DET 88%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 224.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DET has more of the edges
MIL 1, DET 8 · 2026-27 so far
DETBigMIL offense vs DET defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
DETBigShooting
Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
DETBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, DET 15.6%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, DET 17.1%
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
DETBigDET offense vs MIL defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
DETSmallThree-pointers
MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 45.9% and 43.3% of their shots
DETSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, DET 28.9. Allowed: MIL 29.7, DET 28.1
MILSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, DET 72.8%
Context
Schedule so far
MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETSmallRecent form
Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
DETSmallHome court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, MIL 0-2 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -16.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model224.8
Model edge—
Projected score
MIL 104.2 · DET 120.7
Win probability
DET 88%
1st half
Spread
DET -9.2
Total
112.7
Projected score
MIL 51.8 · DET 60.9
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MILlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% | 5-1 83% |
| DETlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22
MIL 16–4 DETMIL leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 2 meetings · MIL 11-9 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025-26 | MIL 111 @ DET 137 | DET -22.5 | DET W |
| Dec 6, 2025-26 | MIL 112 @ DET 124 | DET -12.5 | MIL W |
| Dec 3, 2025-26 | DET 109 @ MIL 113 | MIL +4.5 | MIL W |
| Nov 22, 2025-26 | DET 129 @ MIL 116 | MIL +7.5 | DET W |
| Apr 13, 2024-25 | DET 133 @ MIL 140 | MIL +9.5 | MIL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Bucks
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-1
83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
WSH
WSHL 116-128
−7.5
23
vs
CHI
CHIL 125-132
−8.5
24
@
PHI
PHIL 116-127
+1.5
26
vs
IND
INDW 110-102
+11.5
28
vs
HOU
HOUL 100-132
−23.5
31
vs
CLE
CLEL 111-136
−16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@WSH
WSHL 116-128
+4.5
23
vsCHI
CHIL 125-132
+15.5
24
@PHI
PHIL 116-127
+8.5
26
vsIND
INDW 110-102
−27.5
28
vsHOU
HOUL 100-132
+5.5
31
vsCLE
CLEL 111-136
+12.5
over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pistons
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
BOS
BOSW 121-113
+9.5
23
@
MIA
MIAW 128-111
+14.5
25
@PHI
PHIW 106-93
+11.5
27
@
NY
NYL 97-111
−9.5
28
vs
CHA
CHAW 97-89
+0.5
30
@
BKN
BKNW 110-94
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsBOS
BOSW 121-113
+13.5
23
@MIA
MIAW 128-111
+3.5
25
@PHI
PHIW 106-93
−29.5
27
@NY
NYL 97-111
−12.5
28
vsCHA
CHAW 97-89
−26.5
30
@BKN
BKNW 110-94
−18.5
over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pistons has the better starters
Position by position: Bucks 1, Pistons 4, even 0
BucksBetterPistons
G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast
Score 6
→DETBig
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast
Score 47
G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast
Score 2
→DETBig
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast
Score 79
F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast
Score 51
→DETSmall
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 77
F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 31
→DETBig
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast
Score 97
C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 56
←MILSmall
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 30
BucksBetterPistons
MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9
→DETBig
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0
→DETBig
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players
→DETBig
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
→DETBig
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench-0.7 · 5 players
→DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIL betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
BucksGuards
T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min
Forwards
J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min
Centers
M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min
PistonsGuards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MIL113.0 #17DET109.8 #21Points per possession
MIL1.07 #20DET1.09 #18Pace (possessions)
MIL106.2 #4DET100.9 #29Shooting
Effective FG%
MIL52.0 #21DET53.1 #173-point %
MIL33.9 #21DET36.3 #93-point attempt rate
MIL45.9 #8DET43.3 #13Free throw rate
MIL23.9 #25DET28.9 #14Possessions
Turnover rate
MIL15.8 #18DET15.6 #17Offensive rebound rate
MIL29.7 #8DET27.2 #17Assists per game
MIL26.0 #20DET26.7 #15Defense
Points allowed
MIL126.2 #28DET101.8 #1Points allowed per possession
MIL1.18 #28DET1.01 #1Opponent effective FG%
MIL55.4 #24DET48.8 #2Opponent 3-point %
MIL34.9 #14DET32.5 #10Turnovers forced
MIL12.2 #30DET17.1 #6Defensive rebound rate
MIL74.2 #10DET72.8 #15Steals per game
MIL5.7 #30DET9.0 #12Blocks per game
MIL4.0 #27DET6.7 #4| MIL | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 113.0 #17 | Points per game | 109.8 #21 |
| 1.07 #20 | Points per possession | 1.09 #18 |
| 106.2 #4 | Pace (possessions) | 100.9 #29 |
| Shooting | ||
| 52.0 #21 | Effective FG% | 53.1 #17 |
| 33.9 #21 | 3-point % | 36.3 #9 |
| 45.9 #8 | 3-point attempt rate | 43.3 #13 |
| 23.9 #25 | Free throw rate | 28.9 #14 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.8 #18 | Turnover rate | 15.6 #17 |
| 29.7 #8 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #17 |
| 26.0 #20 | Assists per game | 26.7 #15 |
| Defense | ||
| 126.2 #28 | Points allowed | 101.8 #1 |
| 1.18 #28 | Points allowed per possession | 1.01 #1 |
| 55.4 #24 | Opponent effective FG% | 48.8 #2 |
| 34.9 #14 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.5 #10 |
| 12.2 #30 | Turnovers forced | 17.1 #6 |
| 74.2 #10 | Defensive rebound rate | 72.8 #15 |
| 5.7 #30 | Steals per game | 9.0 #12 |
| 4.0 #27 | Blocks per game | 6.7 #4 |
Bucks
1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Cavaliers111–136
- Lvs Rockets100–132
- Wvs Pacers110–102
- L@ 76ers116–127
- Lvs Bulls125–132
A week or more of rest.
Pistons
5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Nets110–94
- Wvs Hornets97–89
- L@ Knicks97–111
- W@ 76ers106–93
- W@ Heat128–111
A week or more of rest.