Cleveland Cavaliers at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 11, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Clippers
CLE	This season	LAC
4-2	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 116–113 · win probability CLE 58%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CLE 5, LAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

CLEBig

CLE offense vs LAC defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

CLESmall

LAC offense vs CLE defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

CLESmall

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 43.6% and 42.3% of their shots

CLESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, LAC 70.9%

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, LAC 17.0%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, LAC 28.0. Allowed: CLE 23.2, LAC 24.7

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: CLE away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 12	@ LAL	L113–127LO
Mar 14	@ SAC	W132–126LO
Mar 16	@ GS	W118–111LU

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 13	@ POR	L97–116LU
Mar 16	vs DEN	W115–114WO
Mar 18	vs MEM	W123–120LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CLE 7–3 LACCLE leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 3 meetings · CLE 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 4, 2025-26	CLE 124 @ LAC 91	LAC +2.5	CLE W
Nov 23, 2025-26	LAC 105 @ CLE 120	CLE -7.5	CLE W
Mar 30, 2024-25	LAC 122 @ CLE 127	CLE -6.5	LAC W
Mar 18, 2024-25	CLE 119 @ LAC 132	LAC +2.5	LAC W
Apr 7, 2023-24	CLE 118 @ LAC 120	LAC -4.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 4, Clippers 1, even 0

CavaliersBetterClippers

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

CLESmall

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLEBig

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLEBig

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

LACBig

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLEBig

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

CavaliersBetterClippers

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLESmall

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

CLESmall

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Even

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

LAC4.2 #22

CLE		LAC
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.04 #27
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
37.0 #8	3-point %	38.6 #5
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
28.7 #4	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
7.8 #22	Steals per game	11.3 #3
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Clippers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Clippers

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Clippers