Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Mar 12, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Lakers
CLE	This season	LAL
4-2	Record	5-2
2-4	ATS	4-3
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 118–117 · win probability LAL 53%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

CLE 2, LAL 2 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs CLE defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

CLE offense vs LAL defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

CLESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, LAL 67.4%

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 43.6% and 45.7% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, LAL 37.2. Allowed: CLE 23.2, LAL 30.7

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, LAL 17.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: CLE away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 14	@ SAC	W132–126LO
Mar 16	@ GS	W118–111LU
Mar 18	@ DEN	W119–117WU

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 14	vs GS	L95–112LU
Mar 16	@ POR	L129–136LO
Mar 17	vs PHX	W101–73WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CLE 5–5 LALSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 31, 2025-26	CLE 113 @ LAL 127	LAL -2.5	LAL W
Jan 28, 2025-26	LAL 99 @ CLE 129	CLE -3.5	CLE W
Dec 31, 2024-25	CLE 122 @ LAL 110	LAL +4.5	CLE W
Oct 30, 2024-25	LAL 110 @ CLE 134	CLE -4.5	CLE W
Apr 6, 2023-24	CLE 97 @ LAL 116	LAL -4.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Cavaliers 2, Lakers 2, even 1

CavaliersBetterLakers

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

LALSmall

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

Even

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLEBig

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

LALBig

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLEBig

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

CavaliersBetterLakers

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLEBig

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

LALBig

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLESmall

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

LALSmall

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

LAL6.7 #3

CLE		LAL
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.18 #2
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
37.0 #8	3-point %	38.9 #4
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
28.7 #4	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
7.8 #22	Steals per game	10.4 #4
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Lakers

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Lakers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Lakers