Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Mar 12, 10:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Warriors and Nuggets
GS	This season	DEN
4-3	Record	3-2
5-2	ATS	2-3
4-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 119–116 · win probability DEN 58%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

GS 3, DEN 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GSBig

GS offense vs DEN defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: GS 28.8, DEN 31.3. Allowed: GS 27.3, DEN 21.5

GSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, DEN 70.5%

DENSmall

DEN offense vs GS defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, GS 2-2 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: GS 17.6%, DEN 15.9%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 47.1% and 40.9% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: GS away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 14	@ LAL	W112–95WU
Mar 16	vs CLE	L111–118WU
Mar 17	vs MEM	L108–111LU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 14	vs MIA	L123–147LO
Mar 16	@ LAC	L114–115LO
Mar 18	vs CLE	L117–119LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

GS 9–15 DENDEN leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · GS 13-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 26, 2026-27	GS 134 @ DEN 114	DEN -6.5	GS W
Mar 29, 2025-26	GS 93 @ DEN 116	DEN -11.5	DEN W
Feb 22, 2025-26	DEN 117 @ GS 128	GS +6.5	GS W
Nov 7, 2025-26	GS 104 @ DEN 129	DEN -9.5	DEN W
Oct 23, 2025-26	DEN 131 @ GS 137	GS -1.5	GS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 1, Nuggets 2, even 2

WarriorsBetterNuggets

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

GSSmall

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

Even

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

DENBig

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

DENSmall

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

Even

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

WarriorsBetterNuggets

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

GSSmall

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

DENSmall

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

DENSmall

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestGS betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GS117.7 #11

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

GS1.17 #3

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

GS101.4 #25

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

GS55.3 #8

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

GS40.0 #2

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

GS47.1 #5

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

GS28.8 #15

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

GS16.7 #22

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

GS33.2 #1

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

GS27.4 #10

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

GS114.9 #16

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

GS1.13 #21

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

GS56.0 #25

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

GS35.2 #16

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

GS17.6 #5

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

GS70.4 #23

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

GS9.1 #11

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

GS4.1 #24

DEN4.4 #18

GS		DEN
Scoring
117.7 #11	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.17 #3	Points per possession	1.13 #9
101.4 #25	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
55.3 #8	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
40.0 #2	3-point %	37.4 #7
47.1 #5	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
28.8 #15	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
16.7 #22	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
33.2 #1	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
27.4 #10	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
114.9 #16	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.13 #21	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
56.0 #25	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
35.2 #16	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
17.6 #5	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
70.4 #23	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
9.1 #11	Steals per game	10.2 #5
4.1 #24	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Warriors @ Nuggets

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Warriors

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Warriors

Nuggets