Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 10, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Warriors and Kings
GS	This season	SAC
4-3	Record	0-6
5-2	ATS	1-5
4-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 123–113 · win probability GS 76%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 236.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 8, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

GSBig

GS offense vs SAC defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

Three-pointers

GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 47.1% and 38.0% of their shots

GSBig

SAC offense vs GS defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

GSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

GSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, SAC 73.7%

GSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: GS 28.8, SAC 26.4. Allowed: GS 27.3, SAC 31.2

GSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: GS 17.6%, SAC 14.6%

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, GS 2-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: GS away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 12	@ DEN	W134–114WO
Mar 14	@ LAL	W112–95WU
Mar 16	vs CLE	L111–118WU

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 12	@ UTAH	W116–111WU
Mar 14	vs CLE	L126–132WO
Mar 16	@ BOS	L93–112LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 28 since 2021-22

GS 17–11 SACGS leads · 28 games since 2021-22 · GS 14-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 10, 2025-26	GS 118 @ SAC 124	SAC +10.5	SAC W
Apr 7, 2025-26	SAC 105 @ GS 110	GS -14.5	SAC W
Jan 9, 2025-26	SAC 103 @ GS 137	GS -15.5	GS W
Nov 5, 2025-26	GS 116 @ SAC 121	SAC -3.5	SAC W
Mar 13, 2024-25	SAC 104 @ GS 130	GS -7.5	GS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 4, Kings 1, even 0

WarriorsBetterKings

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

GSBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

GSBig

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

SACSmall

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

GSBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

GSBig

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

WarriorsBetterKings

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

GSBig

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

GSBig

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

GSBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

GSBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestGS betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GS117.7 #11

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

GS1.17 #3

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

GS101.4 #25

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

GS55.3 #8

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

GS40.0 #2

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

GS47.1 #5

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

GS28.8 #15

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

GS16.7 #22

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

GS33.2 #1

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

GS27.4 #10

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

GS114.9 #16

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

GS1.13 #21

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

GS56.0 #25

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

GS35.2 #16

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

GS17.6 #5

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

GS70.4 #23

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

GS9.1 #11

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

GS4.1 #24

SAC2.3 #30

GS		SAC
Scoring
117.7 #11	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.17 #3	Points per possession	1.03 #28
101.4 #25	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
55.3 #8	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
40.0 #2	3-point %	30.4 #27
47.1 #5	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
28.8 #15	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
16.7 #22	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
33.2 #1	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
27.4 #10	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
114.9 #16	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.13 #21	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
56.0 #25	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
35.2 #16	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
17.6 #5	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
70.4 #23	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
9.1 #11	Steals per game	8.0 #21
4.1 #24	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Warriors @ Kings

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Warriors

Kings

Warriors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Warriors

Kings