Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 10, 10:00 PM ETModa Center · at Trail Blazers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Trail Blazers
DEN	This season	POR
3-2	Record	4-1
2-3	ATS	3-2
3-2	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 119–113 · win probability POR 64%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

DEN 0, POR 4 · 2026-27 so far

PORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, POR 77.3%

PORBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PORSmall

POR offense vs DEN defense

Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

PORSmall

Home court

POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4

Even

DEN offense vs POR defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, POR 35.9. Allowed: DEN 21.5, POR 27.8

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, POR 14.6%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, POR 14.8%

Even

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 40.9% and 51.5% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
POR WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	—

Venue/role: DEN away; POR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
POR UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
PORlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 12	vs GS	L114–134LO
Mar 14	vs MIA	L123–147LO
Mar 16	@ LAC	L114–115LO

Trail Blazers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 13	vs LAC	W116–97WU
Mar 16	vs LAL	W136–129WO
Mar 17	vs MIA	W127–110WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

DEN 15–5 PORDEN leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 3 meetings · DEN 10-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 6, 2025-26	POR 132 @ DEN 137	DEN -6.5	POR W
Mar 22, 2025-26	POR 112 @ DEN 128	DEN -8.5	DEN W
Feb 20, 2025-26	DEN 157 @ POR 103	POR +1.5	DEN W
Oct 31, 2025-26	DEN 107 @ POR 109	POR +5.5	POR W
Mar 21, 2024-25	DEN 109 @ POR 128	POR +1.5	POR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Trail Blazers

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsPHX	W 124-83	-3.5	W +37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 23	@SAC	W 128-120	-9.5	L −1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 27	@LAL	W 136-129	+1.5	W +8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 29	vsMEM	L 103-124	-7.5	L −28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	@UTAH	W 112-90	-6.5	W +15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

+37.5

SAC

W 128-120

−1.5

LAL

W 136-129

+8.5

MEM

L 103-124

−28.5

UTAH

W 112-90

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

−25.5

SAC

W 128-120

+16.5

LAL

W 136-129

+30.5

MEM

L 103-124

−6.5

UTAH

W 112-90

−30.5

over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 2, Trail Blazers 1, even 2

NuggetsBetterTrail Blazers

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

PORBig

G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

DENSmall

G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

Even

F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENBig

F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

Even

C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74

NuggetsBetterTrail Blazers

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Even

POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

PORSmall

POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

PORBig

Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

PORBig

Bench+15.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Trail Blazers

Guards

D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min

Forwards

D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min

Centers

D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min

Out

J. MorantOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

POR120.6 #4

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

POR1.16 #5

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

POR103.5 #14

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

POR56.2 #4

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

POR35.3 #12

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

POR51.5 #1

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

POR35.9 #3

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

POR14.6 #9

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

POR27.6 #14

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

POR26.2 #17

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

POR109.2 #10

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

POR1.06 #10

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

POR51.3 #8

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

POR32.1 #8

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

POR14.8 #20

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

POR77.3 #3

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

POR8.6 #18

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

POR4.2 #21

DEN		POR
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	120.6 #4
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.16 #5
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	103.5 #14
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	56.2 #4
37.4 #7	3-point %	35.3 #12
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	51.5 #1
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	35.9 #3
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	14.6 #9
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	27.6 #14
26.8 #14	Assists per game	26.2 #17
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	109.2 #10
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #10
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #8
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #8
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	14.8 #20
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	77.3 #3
10.2 #5	Steals per game	8.6 #18
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	4.2 #21

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Jazz112–90
Lvs Grizzlies103–124
W@ Lakers136–129
W@ Kings128–120
Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Trail Blazers

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Trail Blazers

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Trail Blazers