Atlanta Hawks at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 10, 9:30 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Timberwolves
ATL	This season	MIN
3-4	Record	4-3
3-4	ATS	6-1
4-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 120–111 · win probability MIN 74%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

ATL 1, MIN 7 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs ATL defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, MIN 15.6%

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, MIN 75.4%

MINBig

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

MINSmall

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 44.7% and 42.8% of their shots

MINSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, MIN 26.1. Allowed: ATL 32.1, MIN 28.9

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, ATL 2-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

ATL offense vs MIN defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: ATL away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 11	vs BKN	W141–107WO
Mar 13	vs ORL	W132–125WO
Mar 15	@ DAL	W135–120WO

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 13	vs PHI	L103–115LU
Mar 14	vs WSH	W141–115WO
Mar 16	@ NO	W132–126WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ATL 5–5 MINSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · ATL 8-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 9, 2025-26	ATL 116 @ MIN 138	MIN -8.5	MIN W
Dec 31, 2025-26	MIN 102 @ ATL 126	ATL +5.5	ATL W
Jan 27, 2024-25	ATL 92 @ MIN 100	MIN -10.5	ATL W
Dec 23, 2024-25	MIN 104 @ ATL 117	ATL +3.5	ATL W
Apr 12, 2023-24	ATL 106 @ MIN 109	MIN -12.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 1, Timberwolves 2, even 2

HawksBetterTimberwolves

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

ATLSmall

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

Even

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

MINBig

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

Even

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

MINBig

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

HawksBetterTimberwolves

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Even

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

MINBig

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

MIN4.3 #20

ATL		MIN
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.13 #8
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
32.8 #22	3-point %	37.6 #6
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
30.7 #1	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
9.4 #8	Steals per game	9.0 #13
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Timberwolves