Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 10, 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · at Jazz · Conference game

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Jazz
HOU	This season	UTAH
6-1	Record	1-5
6-1	ATS	1-5
5-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 121–108 · win probability HOU 81%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 8, UTAH 1 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

HOU offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 38.1% and 41.7% of their shots

HOUBig

UTAH offense vs HOU defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9

HOUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, UTAH 13.3%

HOUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: HOU 24.7, UTAH 33.8

HOUBig

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, UTAH 77.1%

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, HOU 3-1 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-4	—

Venue/role: HOU away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 13	vs IND	W118–114LO
Mar 16	vs SA	W114–110WU
Mar 17	vs BKN	W120–96WU

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 12	vs SAC	L111–116LU
Mar 17	vs ATL	L119–121WU
Mar 18	vs MIN	L111–147LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

HOU 10–8 UTAHHOU leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings · HOU 9-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 3, 2025-26	UTAH 106 @ HOU 140	HOU -18.5	HOU W
Feb 23, 2025-26	UTAH 105 @ HOU 125	HOU -13.5	HOU W
Dec 1, 2025-26	HOU 125 @ UTAH 133	UTAH +11.5	UTAH W
Nov 30, 2025-26	HOU 129 @ UTAH 101	UTAH +11.5	HOU W
Apr 2, 2024-25	UTAH 105 @ HOU 143	HOU -15.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 4, Jazz 0, even 1

RocketsBetterJazz

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

HOUBig

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

HOUBig

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

HOUBig

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

Even

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

HOUBig

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

RocketsBetterJazz

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

HOUBig

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

HOUBig

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

UTAH108.7 #24

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

UTAH1.05 #25

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

UTAH104.0 #12

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

UTAH51.0 #24

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

UTAH32.6 #23

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

UTAH41.7 #21

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

UTAH31.6 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

UTAH17.0 #25

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

UTAH25.7 #22

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

UTAH26.2 #19

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

UTAH118.8 #25

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

UTAH1.14 #25

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

UTAH53.9 #18

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

UTAH37.6 #25

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

UTAH13.3 #28

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

UTAH77.1 #4

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

UTAH6.2 #29

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

UTAH6.5 #5

HOU		UTAH
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	108.7 #24
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.05 #25
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	104.0 #12
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	51.0 #24
39.0 #3	3-point %	32.6 #23
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #21
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	31.6 #10
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	17.0 #25
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #22
28.1 #5	Assists per game	26.2 #19
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	118.8 #25
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #18
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #25
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	13.3 #28
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	77.1 #4
9.7 #6	Steals per game	6.2 #29
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	6.5 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Jazz

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Jazz

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Jazz