Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 10, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Raptors
OKC	This season	TOR
4-2	Record	3-3
3-3	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 112–109 · win probability TOR 58%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

OKC 2, TOR 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

TOR offense vs OKC defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

TORBig

OKC offense vs TOR defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, TOR 20.8%

OKCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, TOR 27.7. Allowed: OKC 23.4, TOR 41.5

TORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, TOR 73.4%

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

Even

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 35.8% and 38.1% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: OKC away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 12	@ BOS	L109–119LO
Mar 14	vs SA	W116–104WU
Mar 16	vs CHA	L97–124LU

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 12	@ NO	W119–106WU
Mar 14	vs DET	L116–127LO
Mar 15	@ PHI	L102–115LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

OKC 7–3 TOROKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 24, 2025-26	OKC 116 @ TOR 107	TOR -1.5	OKC W
Jan 25, 2025-26	TOR 103 @ OKC 101	OKC -11.5	TOR W
Feb 7, 2024-25	TOR 109 @ OKC 121	OKC -18.5	TOR W
Dec 5, 2024-25	OKC 129 @ TOR 92	TOR +10.5	OKC W
Mar 22, 2023-24	OKC 123 @ TOR 103	TOR +16.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 3, Raptors 2, even 0

ThunderBetterRaptors

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCBig

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

TORBig

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

TORBig

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCBig

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

ThunderBetterRaptors

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

TORSmall

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCBig

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

TORBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

TOR4.3 #19

OKC		TOR
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.11 #13
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
30.9 #26	3-point %	32.0 #24
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
21.7 #29	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
8.3 #20	Steals per game	12.7 #2
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Raptors

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Raptors

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Raptors