Orlando Magic at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 10, 7:00 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Heat
ORL	This season	MIA
2-4	Record	2-4
2-4	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 119–116 · win probability MIA 59%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

ORL 3, MIA 4 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs ORL defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, MIA 15.4%

ORLBig

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 46.5% and 41.7% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

ORLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

MIASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, MIA 72.3%

ORLSmall

ORL offense vs MIA defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, MIA 27.3. Allowed: ORL 29.8, MIA 23.2

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: ORL away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 13	@ ATL	L125–132LO
Mar 15	@ CHI	W127–103WU
Mar 16	@ MIL	W130–91WO

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 12	@ MIL	W112–105WU
Mar 14	@ DEN	W147–123WO
Mar 17	@ POR	L110–127LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

ORL 10–11 MIAMIA leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · ORL has won the last 5 meetings · ORL 11-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 14, 2025-26	ORL 121 @ MIA 117	MIA -4.5	ORL W
Jan 28, 2025-26	ORL 133 @ MIA 124	MIA -3.5	ORL W
Dec 9, 2025-26	MIA 108 @ ORL 117	ORL -1.5	ORL W
Dec 5, 2025-26	MIA 105 @ ORL 106	ORL -6.5	MIA W
Oct 22, 2025-26	MIA 121 @ ORL 125	ORL -8.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 0, Heat 3, even 2

MagicBetterHeat

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

Even

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

MIASmall

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

Even

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

MIASmall

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

MIABig

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

MagicBetterHeat

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

ORLSmall

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

MIABig

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

MIASmall

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

MIA5.0 #13

ORL		MIA
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.11 #14
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
35.4 #11	3-point %	34.1 #19
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
26.3 #16	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
7.0 #26	Steals per game	8.3 #19
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Heat

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Heat

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Heat