New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 10, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pelicans and Hornets
NO	This season	CHA
2-4	Record	3-4
4-2	ATS	3-4
4-2	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 113–111 · win probability CHA 56%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

NO 6, CHA 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

NOBig

Three-pointers

NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 32.8% and 50.8% of their shots

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, CHA 76.6%

NOBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NO 35.3, CHA 18.9. Allowed: NO 30.6, CHA 28.4

NOSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: NO 16.3%, CHA 14.5%

CHASmall

NO offense vs CHA defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

Context

Schedule so far

NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOSmall

Recent form

Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

NOSmall

CHA offense vs NO defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, NO 0-2 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-0	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: NO away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 12	vs TOR	L106–119LU
Mar 13	@ DAL	W129–111WU
Mar 16	vs MIN	L126–132LO

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 11	vs IND	W129–108WO
Mar 13	vs PHX	W127–107WO
Mar 16	@ OKC	W124–97WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NO 6–4 CHANO leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · NO 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 2, 2025-26	NO 95 @ CHA 102	CHA -6.5	CHA W
Nov 4, 2025-26	CHA 112 @ NO 116	NO -3.5	NO W
Mar 30, 2024-25	CHA 94 @ NO 98	NO -2.5	NO W
Jan 25, 2024-25	NO 92 @ CHA 123	CHA +2.5	CHA W
Jan 17, 2023-24	CHA 112 @ NO 132	NO -12.5	NO W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 2, Hornets 1, even 2

PelicansBetterHornets

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

NOSmall

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

CHABig

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

Even

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

Even

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

NOBig

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

PelicansBetterHornets

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

CHASmall

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

NOSmall

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

CHASmall

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

NOBig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

CHABig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNO betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NO119.7 #7

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

NO1.10 #15

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

NO108.0 #2

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

NO55.1 #9

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

NO31.2 #25

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

NO32.8 #30

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

NO35.3 #4

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

NO17.4 #26

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

NO24.3 #25

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

NO25.5 #21

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

NO117.8 #24

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

NO1.09 #16

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

NO54.2 #21

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

NO30.5 #5

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

NO16.3 #10

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

NO76.4 #6

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

NO13.7 #1

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

NO4.8 #16

CHA5.0 #15

NO		CHA
Scoring
119.7 #7	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.10 #15	Points per possession	0.99 #30
108.0 #2	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
55.1 #9	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
31.2 #25	3-point %	29.6 #28
32.8 #30	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
35.3 #4	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
17.4 #26	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
24.3 #25	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
25.5 #21	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
117.8 #24	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.09 #16	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
54.2 #21	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
30.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
16.3 #10	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
76.4 #6	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
13.7 #1	Steals per game	7.1 #25
4.8 #16	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans @ Hornets

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pelicans

Hornets

Pelicans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pelicans

Hornets