Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 8, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Kings
DEN	This season	SAC
3-2	Record	0-6
2-3	ATS	1-5
3-2	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 124–113 · win probability DEN 77%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 6, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs SAC defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 40.9% and 38.0% of their shots

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Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, SAC 26.4. Allowed: DEN 21.5, SAC 31.2

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Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENSmall

SAC offense vs DEN defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

DENSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, SAC 14.6%

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, SAC 73.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: DEN away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 10	@ POR	W137–132LO
Mar 12	vs GS	L114–134LO
Mar 14	vs MIA	L123–147LO

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 10	vs GS	W124–118WO
Mar 12	@ UTAH	W116–111WU
Mar 14	vs CLE	L126–132WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

DEN 14–5 SACDEN leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · DEN 11-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 11, 2025-26	DEN 136 @ SAC 105	SAC +10.5	DEN W
Nov 22, 2025-26	SAC 128 @ DEN 123	DEN -11.5	SAC W
Nov 11, 2025-26	DEN 122 @ SAC 108	SAC +8.5	DEN W
Nov 3, 2025-26	SAC 124 @ DEN 130	DEN -11.5	SAC W
Apr 9, 2024-25	DEN 124 @ SAC 116	SAC +4.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 5, Kings 0, even 0

NuggetsBetterKings

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

DENBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

DENBig

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

DENBig

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENBig

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

NuggetsBetterKings

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENBig

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

DENSmall

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

DENBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

SAC2.3 #30

DEN		SAC
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.03 #28
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
37.4 #7	3-point %	30.4 #27
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
26.8 #14	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
10.2 #5	Steals per game	8.0 #21
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Kings

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Kings

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Kings