Paycom Center · at Thunder · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 DAL | This season | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 3-3 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 1-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects OKC 115–110 · win probability OKC 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 224.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges
DAL 3, OKC 4 · 2026-27 so far
OKCBigDAL offense vs OKC defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
DALBigThree-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 42.1% and 35.8% of their shots
OKCBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, OKC 15.8%
DALBigShooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0
DALSmallRecent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0
OKCSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, OKC 71.4%
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points
OKCSmallHome court
OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, DAL 2-1 away
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, OKC 21.8. Allowed: DAL 27.2, OKC 23.4
Even
OKC offense vs DAL defense
Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelOKC -4.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model224.7
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 110.1 · OKC 114.6
Win probability
OKC 63%
1st half
Spread
OKC -2.4
Total
112.7
Projected score
DAL 55.1 · OKC 57.5
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
| OKClast 6 | 4-2 67% | 3-3 50% | 1-5 17% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22
DAL 13–12 OKCDAL leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · DAL 12-13 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026-27 | OKC 96 @ DAL 120 | DAL +4.5 | DAL W |
| Mar 1, 2025-26 | OKC 100 @ DAL 87 | DAL +16.5 | DAL W |
| Dec 5, 2025-26 | DAL 111 @ OKC 132 | OKC -15.5 | OKC W |
| Oct 27, 2025-26 | OKC 101 @ DAL 94 | DAL +9.5 | DAL W |
| Jan 23, 2024-25 | DAL 121 @ OKC 115 | OKC -11.5 | DAL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vs
SA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Thunder
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-5
17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
@SA
SAW 116-104
+10.5
22
vs
DEN
DENW 96-84
+4.5
25
vs
LAC
LACW 108-101
−9.5
26
vs
PHX
PHXW 125-114
+2.5
28
@DAL
DALL 96-120
−28.5
31
@HOU
HOUL 98-119
−18.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
@SA
SAW 116-104
−9.5
22
vsDEN
DENW 96-84
−56.5
25
vsLAC
LACW 108-101
−14.5
26
vsPHX
PHXW 125-114
+17.5
28
@DAL
DALL 96-120
−11.5
31
@HOU
HOUL 98-119
−2.5
over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Thunder has the better starters
Position by position: Mavericks 2, Thunder 3, even 0
MavericksBetterThunder
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
→OKCBig
G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 88
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
→OKCSmall
G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast
Score 99
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
←DALBig
G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 8
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
←DALSmall
G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 40
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
→OKCBig
C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast
Score 88
MavericksBetterThunder
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
→OKCBig
OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
=Even
OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
→OKCBig
Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
←DALBig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
←DALBig
Bench-4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
ThunderGuards
S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min
Forwards
J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min
Centers
I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min
Out
A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
DAL114.3 #14OKC106.5 #29Points per possession
DAL1.12 #11OKC1.05 #23Pace (possessions)
DAL102.8 #18OKC101.1 #27Shooting
Effective FG%
DAL56.9 #2OKC49.5 #283-point %
DAL35.1 #14OKC30.9 #263-point attempt rate
DAL42.1 #18OKC35.8 #29Free throw rate
DAL21.4 #29OKC21.8 #28Possessions
Turnover rate
DAL16.8 #23OKC14.5 #7Offensive rebound rate
DAL27.8 #13OKC28.5 #10Assists per game
DAL27.0 #12OKC21.7 #29Defense
Points allowed
DAL111.8 #14OKC107.0 #5Points allowed per possession
DAL1.08 #13OKC1.06 #7Opponent effective FG%
DAL51.3 #9OKC51.0 #6Opponent 3-point %
DAL29.7 #2OKC35.3 #17Turnovers forced
DAL14.5 #24OKC15.8 #13Defensive rebound rate
DAL69.4 #25OKC71.4 #18Steals per game
DAL8.8 #16OKC8.3 #20Blocks per game
DAL6.8 #2OKC6.3 #7| DAL | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 114.3 #14 | Points per game | 106.5 #29 |
| 1.12 #11 | Points per possession | 1.05 #23 |
| 102.8 #18 | Pace (possessions) | 101.1 #27 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.9 #2 | Effective FG% | 49.5 #28 |
| 35.1 #14 | 3-point % | 30.9 #26 |
| 42.1 #18 | 3-point attempt rate | 35.8 #29 |
| 21.4 #29 | Free throw rate | 21.8 #28 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.8 #23 | Turnover rate | 14.5 #7 |
| 27.8 #13 | Offensive rebound rate | 28.5 #10 |
| 27.0 #12 | Assists per game | 21.7 #29 |
| Defense | ||
| 111.8 #14 | Points allowed | 107.0 #5 |
| 1.08 #13 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #7 |
| 51.3 #9 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.0 #6 |
| 29.7 #2 | Opponent 3-point % | 35.3 #17 |
| 14.5 #24 | Turnovers forced | 15.8 #13 |
| 69.4 #25 | Defensive rebound rate | 71.4 #18 |
| 8.8 #16 | Steals per game | 8.3 #20 |
| 6.8 #2 | Blocks per game | 6.3 #7 |
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.
Thunder
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Rockets98–119
- L@ Mavericks96–120
- Wvs Suns125–114
- Wvs Clippers108–101
- Wvs Nuggets96–84
A week or more of rest.