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NBA · Tue, Mar 9

Grizzlies @ Mavericks

American Airlines Center · at Mavericks · Conference game
#12MEMGrizzlies
@
#17DALMavericks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MEMThis seasonDAL
6-0Record4-2
6-0ATS4-2
2-4O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 118–114 · win probability DAL 62%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 232.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MEM 4, DAL 1 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
MEMBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, DAL 69.4%
MEMSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, DAL 14.5%
MEMSmall
Three-pointers
MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 42.1% and 42.1% of their shots
MEMSmall
MEM offense vs DAL defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
DALSmall
Home court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, MEM 4-0 away
Even
DAL offense vs MEM defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Recent form
Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, DAL 21.4. Allowed: MEM 31.4, DAL 27.2
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -4.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model232.0
Model edge—
Projected score
MEM 113.9 · DAL 118.1
Win probability
DAL 62%
1st half
Spread
DAL -2.2
Total
116.1
Projected score
MEM 56.9 · DAL 59.1
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 3, Mavericks 1, even 1
GrizzliesBetterMavericks
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97
MEMBig
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87
Even
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33
DALSmall
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85
MEMSmall
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92
MEMBig
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
GrizzliesBetterMavericks
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
MEMSmall
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
Even
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
MEMBig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
MEMBig
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
DALBig
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMEM betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Grizzlies
Guards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MEMDAL
Scoring
121.2 #1Points per game114.3 #14
1.16 #4Points per possession1.12 #11
103.6 #13Pace (possessions)102.8 #18
Shooting
55.9 #5Effective FG%56.9 #2
41.7 #13-point %35.1 #14
42.1 #193-point attempt rate42.1 #18
25.3 #22Free throw rate21.4 #29
Possessions
15.4 #16Turnover rate16.8 #23
30.6 #5Offensive rebound rate27.8 #13
27.0 #13Assists per game27.0 #12
Defense
106.0 #3Points allowed111.8 #14
1.03 #2Points allowed per possession1.08 #13
49.2 #3Opponent effective FG%51.3 #9
30.0 #3Opponent 3-point %29.7 #2
15.7 #15Turnovers forced14.5 #24
75.0 #9Defensive rebound rate69.4 #25
6.3 #28Steals per game8.8 #16
5.2 #11Blocks per game6.8 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Kings136–105
  • W@ Trail Blazers124–103
  • W@ Jazz110–105
  • W@ Kings123–112
  • W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.