Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 9, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Bulls
BOS	This season	CHI
5-1	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 123–109 · win probability BOS 84%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 5, CHI 1 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

BOSBig

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 45.9% and 47.9% of their shots

BOSBig

BOS offense vs CHI defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, CHI 14.7%

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

CHI offense vs BOS defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, CHI 69.8%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, CHI 38.3. Allowed: BOS 31.7, CHI 33.5

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: BOS away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 11	vs MEM	W117–112LU
Mar 12	vs OKC	W119–109WO
Mar 14	@ NY	W107–103WU

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 11	vs PHX	L110–120WU
Mar 13	vs MEM	L124–125LO
Mar 15	vs ORL	L103–127LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

BOS 14–5 CHIBOS leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 3 meetings · BOS 9-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 30, 2026-27	CHI 111 @ BOS 125	BOS -14.5	CHI W
Oct 26, 2026-27	CHI 99 @ BOS 134	BOS -14.5	BOS W
Feb 11, 2025-26	CHI 105 @ BOS 124	BOS -13.5	BOS W
Jan 24, 2025-26	BOS 111 @ CHI 114	CHI +3.5	CHI W
Jan 5, 2025-26	CHI 101 @ BOS 115	BOS -10.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 5, Bulls 0, even 0

CelticsBetterBulls

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSSmall

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

BOSBig

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

BOSBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

BOSBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

BOSBig

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

CelticsBetterBulls

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

BOSBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSSmall

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

CHI5.0 #12

BOS		CHI
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.04 #26
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
35.5 #10	3-point %	28.1 #30
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
28.0 #6	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
9.2 #9	Steals per game	8.7 #17
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Bulls

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Bulls

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Bulls