Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 CLE | This season | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 5-1 |
| 3-3 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DET 115–111 · win probability DET 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 225.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DET has more of the edges
CLE 1, DET 3 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETSmallRecent form
Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
CLESmallFree throws
Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, DET 28.9. Allowed: CLE 23.2, DET 28.1
DETSmallHome court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, CLE 1-2 away
DETSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, DET 15.6%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, DET 17.1%
Even
DET offense vs CLE defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings
Even
CLE offense vs DET defense
Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, DET 72.8%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
Even
Three-pointers
CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 43.6% and 43.3% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -3.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model225.3
Model edge—
Projected score
CLE 110.7 · DET 114.6
Win probability
DET 61%
1st half
Spread
DET -2.0
Total
112.9
Projected score
CLE 55.4 · DET 57.5
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLElast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
| DETlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 27 since 2021-22
CLE 19–8 DETCLE leads · 27 games since 2021-22 · CLE 14-11 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2025-26 | CLE 125 @ DET 94 | DET -4.5 | CLE W |
| May 15, 2025-26 | DET 115 @ CLE 94 | CLE -3.5 | DET W |
| May 13, 2025-26 | CLE 117 @ DET 113 | — | — |
| May 11, 2025-26 | DET 103 @ CLE 112 | CLE -3.5 | CLE W |
| May 9, 2025-26 | DET 109 @ CLE 116 | CLE -4.5 | CLE W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Cavaliers
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
22
@
PHI
PHIL 106-114
−5.5
24
vs
BKN
BKNW 125-121
−7.5
26
vs
MIN
MINW 127-125
−1.5
28
vs
WSH
WSHW 121-111
+0.5
29
@
ATL
ATLL 111-114
−1.5
31
@
MIL
MILW 136-111
+16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
22
@PHI
PHIL 106-114
−17.5
24
vsBKN
BKNW 125-121
+17.5
26
vsMIN
MINW 127-125
+17.5
28
vsWSH
WSHW 121-111
−8.5
29
@ATL
ATLL 111-114
−12.5
31
@MIL
MILW 136-111
+12.5
over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pistons
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
BOS
BOSW 121-113
+9.5
23
@
MIA
MIAW 128-111
+14.5
25
@PHI
PHIW 106-93
+11.5
27
@
NY
NYL 97-111
−9.5
28
vs
CHA
CHAW 97-89
+0.5
30
@BKN
BKNW 110-94
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsBOS
BOSW 121-113
+13.5
23
@MIA
MIAW 128-111
+3.5
25
@PHI
PHIW 106-93
−29.5
27
@NY
NYL 97-111
−12.5
28
vsCHA
CHAW 97-89
−26.5
30
@BKN
BKNW 110-94
−18.5
over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Cavaliers 1, Pistons 1, even 3
CavaliersBetterPistons
G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast
Score 53
=Even
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast
Score 47
G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 86
=Even
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast
Score 79
G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 90
=Even
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 77
C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 30
→DETBig
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast
Score 97
C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 100
←CLEBig
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 30
CavaliersBetterPistons
CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0
=Even
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2
=Even
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players
←CLEBig
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players
→DETSmall
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
→DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCLE betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
CavaliersGuards
J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min
Forwards
M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min
Centers
E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew
Out
P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut
PistonsGuards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
CLE121.0 #2DET109.8 #21Points per possession
CLE1.14 #7DET1.09 #18Pace (possessions)
CLE106.2 #3DET100.9 #29Shooting
Effective FG%
CLE55.3 #7DET53.1 #173-point %
CLE37.0 #8DET36.3 #93-point attempt rate
CLE43.6 #12DET43.3 #13Free throw rate
CLE28.9 #13DET28.9 #14Possessions
Turnover rate
CLE14.2 #6DET15.6 #17Offensive rebound rate
CLE26.7 #20DET27.2 #17Assists per game
CLE28.7 #4DET26.7 #15Defense
Points allowed
CLE116.0 #20DET101.8 #1Points allowed per possession
CLE1.09 #14DET1.01 #1Opponent effective FG%
CLE52.5 #12DET48.8 #2Opponent 3-point %
CLE33.7 #11DET32.5 #10Turnovers forced
CLE14.1 #25DET17.1 #6Defensive rebound rate
CLE73.9 #11DET72.8 #15Steals per game
CLE7.8 #22DET9.0 #12Blocks per game
CLE6.3 #6DET6.7 #4| CLE | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 121.0 #2 | Points per game | 109.8 #21 |
| 1.14 #7 | Points per possession | 1.09 #18 |
| 106.2 #3 | Pace (possessions) | 100.9 #29 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.3 #7 | Effective FG% | 53.1 #17 |
| 37.0 #8 | 3-point % | 36.3 #9 |
| 43.6 #12 | 3-point attempt rate | 43.3 #13 |
| 28.9 #13 | Free throw rate | 28.9 #14 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.2 #6 | Turnover rate | 15.6 #17 |
| 26.7 #20 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #17 |
| 28.7 #4 | Assists per game | 26.7 #15 |
| Defense | ||
| 116.0 #20 | Points allowed | 101.8 #1 |
| 1.09 #14 | Points allowed per possession | 1.01 #1 |
| 52.5 #12 | Opponent effective FG% | 48.8 #2 |
| 33.7 #11 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.5 #10 |
| 14.1 #25 | Turnovers forced | 17.1 #6 |
| 73.9 #11 | Defensive rebound rate | 72.8 #15 |
| 7.8 #22 | Steals per game | 9.0 #12 |
| 6.3 #6 | Blocks per game | 6.7 #4 |
Cavaliers
4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Bucks136–111
- L@ Hawks111–114
- Wvs Wizards121–111
- Wvs Timberwolves127–125
- Wvs Nets125–121
A week or more of rest.
Pistons
5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Nets110–94
- Wvs Hornets97–89
- L@ Knicks97–111
- W@ 76ers106–93
- W@ Heat128–111
A week or more of rest.