Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 9, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Nets
MIL	This season	BKN
1-5	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	3-3
5-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BKN 115–113 · win probability BKN 55%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

MIL 0, BKN 4 · 2026-27 so far

BKNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, BKN 15.9%

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, MIL 0-2 away

BKNSmall

MIL offense vs BKN defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

BKNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, BKN 32.9. Allowed: MIL 29.7, BKN 33.5

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, BKN 77.8%

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

Even

BKN offense vs MIL defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 45.9% and 48.0% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: MIL away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 11	@ DET	L111–137LO
Mar 12	vs MIA	L105–112LU
Mar 16	vs ORL	L91–130LO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 11	@ ATL	L107–141LO
Mar 13	@ DET	L94–110LU
Mar 15	vs IND	W98–90WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

MIL 12–7 BKNMIL leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · MIL 8-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 10, 2025-26	BKN 108 @ MIL 125	MIL -10.5	MIL W
Apr 7, 2025-26	MIL 90 @ BKN 96	BKN +1.5	BKN W
Dec 14, 2025-26	MIL 82 @ BKN 127	BKN +1.5	BKN W
Nov 29, 2025-26	BKN 99 @ MIL 116	MIL -11.5	MIL W
Jan 2, 2024-25	BKN 113 @ MIL 110	MIL -12.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nets has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 1, Nets 2, even 2

BucksBetterNets

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

BKNSmall

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

Even

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

Even

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

BKNBig

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

MILBig

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

BucksBetterNets

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Even

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

Even

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

BKNBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

BKNSmall

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

BKN4.7 #17

MIL		BKN
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.03 #29
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
33.9 #21	3-point %	35.1 #15
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
26.0 #20	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
5.7 #30	Steals per game	9.0 #14
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Nets

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Nets

Nets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Nets