Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 9, 7:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Magic
PHX	This season	ORL
1-3	Record	2-4
0-4	ATS	2-4
3-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 116–112 · win probability ORL 60%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

PHX 2, ORL 6 · 2026-27 so far

PHXBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, ORL 13.6%

ORLBig

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 45.1% and 46.5% of their shots

ORLBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, ORL 31.7. Allowed: PHX 31.1, ORL 29.8

ORLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

ORLSmall

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

PHXSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, ORL 68.9%

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, PHX 0-2 away

ORLSmall

PHX offense vs ORL defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

ORL offense vs PHX defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: PHX away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 11	@ CHI	W120–110LU
Mar 13	@ CHA	L107–127LO
Mar 15	@ MEM	W131–105WO

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 10	@ MIA	W121–117WO
Mar 13	@ ATL	L125–132LO
Mar 15	@ CHI	W127–103WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHX 5–5 ORLSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHX 1-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 31, 2025-26	PHX 111 @ ORL 115	ORL -2.5	ORL W
Feb 21, 2025-26	ORL 110 @ PHX 113	PHX -3.5	ORL W
Dec 8, 2024-25	PHX 110 @ ORL 115	ORL -1.5	ORL W
Nov 18, 2024-25	ORL 109 @ PHX 99	PHX +4.5	ORL W
Jan 28, 2023-24	PHX 98 @ ORL 113	ORL +1.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Suns has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 2, Magic 1, even 2

SunsBetterMagic

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXSmall

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

Even

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

ORLBig

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

PHXSmall

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

Even

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

SunsBetterMagic

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Even

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

Even

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

ORL4.2 #23

PHX		ORL
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.07 #21
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
35.0 #16	3-point %	35.4 #11
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
27.5 #8	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
9.0 #15	Steals per game	7.0 #26
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Magic

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Magic

Suns has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Magic