Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 9, 8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · at Spurs

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Spurs
WSH	This season	SA
3-3	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	2-4
1-5	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 122–107 · win probability SA 87%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

WSH 2, SA 5 · 2026-27 so far

SABig

WSH offense vs SA defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

SABig

SA offense vs WSH defense

Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

SABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, SA 75.8%

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, SA 13.1%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, SA 15.7%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, SA 24.5. Allowed: WSH 21.8, SA 21.7

WSHSmall

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 37.6% and 39.0% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points

SASmall

Home court

SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
SA LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: WSH away; SA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
SA UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
SAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 11	@ DAL	L105–111LU
Mar 14	@ MIN	L115–141LO
Mar 16	vs NY	L113–145LO

Spurs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 11	vs PHI	W115–102WU
Mar 14	@ OKC	L104–116LU
Mar 16	@ HOU	L110–114LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

WSH 3–7 SASA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 4 meetings · WSH 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2025-26	SA 124 @ WSH 113	WSH +15.5	WSH W
Dec 18, 2025-26	WSH 94 @ SA 119	SA -15.5	SA W
Feb 10, 2024-25	SA 131 @ WSH 121	WSH +10.5	WSH W
Nov 13, 2024-25	WSH 130 @ SA 139	SA -9.5	WSH W
Jan 29, 2023-24	WSH 118 @ SA 113	SA -3.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Spurs

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsOKC	L 104-116	+1.5	L −10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 23	vsHOU	L 110-114	-4.5	L −8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@DAL	W 122-106	-14.5	W +1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 27	vsSAC	W 130-103	-19.5	W +7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 28	@UTAH	W 117-111	-13.5	L −7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsMIN	W 121-111	-12.5	L −2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−10.5

HOU

L 110-114

−8.5

DAL

W 122-106

+1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+7.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−7.5

MIN

W 121-111

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−9.5

HOU

L 110-114

−0.5

DAL

W 122-106

−1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+0.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−4.5

MIN

W 121-111

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Spurs has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 0, Spurs 3, even 2

WizardsBetterSpurs

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

SABig

G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

SABig

G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

Even

G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

SASmall

G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98

WizardsBetterSpurs

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

SABig

SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

SABig

SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

SABig

Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

SABig

Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

SABig

Bench+19.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Spurs

Guards

D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min

Forwards

V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min

Centers

L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

SA117.3 #12

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

SA1.12 #10

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

SA104.3 #11

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

SA53.3 #16

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

SA34.9 #17

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

SA39.0 #24

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

SA24.5 #24

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

SA13.1 #2

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

SA27.2 #16

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

SA27.5 #9

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

SA110.2 #12

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

SA1.06 #6

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

SA52.1 #11

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

SA37.3 #23

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

SA15.7 #14

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

SA75.8 #7

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

SA9.2 #10

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

SA7.0 #1

WSH		SA
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	117.3 #12
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.12 #10
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	104.3 #11
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	53.3 #16
29.3 #29	3-point %	34.9 #17
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	39.0 #24
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	24.5 #24
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	13.1 #2
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #16
24.5 #24	Assists per game	27.5 #9
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	110.2 #12
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #6
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #11
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	37.3 #23
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	15.7 #14
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	75.8 #7
7.2 #24	Steals per game	9.2 #10
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	7.0 #1

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Timberwolves121–111
W@ Jazz117–111
Wvs Kings130–103
W@ Mavericks122–106
Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Spurs

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Spurs

Spurs has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Spurs