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NBA · Mon, Mar 8

Pelicans @ Timberwolves

Target Center · at Timberwolves · Conference game
#22NOPelicans
@
#2MINTimberwolves
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NOThis seasonMIN
2-4Record4-3
4-2ATS6-1
4-2O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 124–111 · win probability MIN 82%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 234.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

NO 1, MIN 6 · 2026-27 so far
MINBig
MIN offense vs NO defense
Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MINBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5
MINBig
Three-pointers
NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 32.8% and 42.8% of their shots
MINSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, MIN 75.4%
NOSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NO 35.3, MIN 26.1. Allowed: NO 30.6, MIN 28.9
MINSmall
NO offense vs MIN defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings
MINSmall
Home court
MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, NO 0-2 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: NO 16.3%, MIN 15.6%
Context
Tempo
About 107 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Recent form
Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIN -12.7
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model234.4
Model edge—
Projected score
NO 110.9 · MIN 123.5
Win probability
MIN 82%
1st half
Spread
MIN -7.0
Total
117.2
Projected score
NO 55.1 · MIN 62.1
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 0, Timberwolves 4, even 1
PelicansBetterTimberwolves
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45
Even
G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19
MINBig
G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81
MINSmall
F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75
MINSmall
F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52
MINBig
C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98
PelicansBetterTimberwolves
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
MINSmall
MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
MINBig
MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
MINBig
Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
MINBig
Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
MINBig
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNO betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pelicans
Guards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
Timberwolves
Guards
A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min
Forwards
J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min
Centers
R. Gobert30 min
Out
A. EdwardsOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NOMIN
Scoring
119.7 #7Points per game120.0 #6
1.10 #15Points per possession1.13 #8
108.0 #2Pace (possessions)105.4 #9
Shooting
55.1 #9Effective FG%55.8 #6
31.2 #253-point %37.6 #6
32.8 #303-point attempt rate42.8 #16
35.3 #4Free throw rate26.1 #21
Possessions
17.4 #26Turnover rate15.1 #12
24.3 #25Offensive rebound rate30.0 #7
25.5 #21Assists per game27.3 #11
Defense
117.8 #24Points allowed108.7 #8
1.09 #16Points allowed per possession1.04 #4
54.2 #21Opponent effective FG%50.5 #5
30.5 #5Opponent 3-point %31.2 #6
16.3 #10Turnovers forced15.6 #17
76.4 #6Defensive rebound rate75.4 #8
13.7 #1Steals per game9.0 #13
4.8 #16Blocks per game4.3 #20
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Hawks121–99
  • Wvs Kings132–120
  • Lvs Nuggets91–104
  • L@ Nuggets135–141
  • L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Spurs111–121
  • Wvs Clippers127–101
  • Lvs Warriors114–119
  • L@ Cavaliers125–127
  • Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.