Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 6, 8:30 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Lakers
OKC	This season	LAL
4-2	Record	5-2
3-3	ATS	4-3
1-5	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 115–113 · win probability LAL 56%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

OKC 2, LAL 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, LAL 67.4%

LALSmall

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 35.8% and 45.7% of their shots

LALSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, LAL 17.8%

LALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, LAL 37.2. Allowed: OKC 23.4, LAL 30.7

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

LAL offense vs OKC defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

OKC offense vs LAL defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: OKC away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 8	vs DAL	L96–120LU
Mar 10	@ TOR	W116–107WO
Mar 12	@ BOS	L109–119LO

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 7	vs BKN	W116–99LU
Mar 11	vs NY	W110–97WU
Mar 12	vs CLE	W127–113WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

OKC 14–8 LALOKC leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 9 meetings · OKC 13-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
May 11, 2025-26	OKC 115 @ LAL 110	LAL +12.5	LAL W
May 9, 2025-26	OKC 131 @ LAL 108	LAL +9.5	OKC W
May 7, 2025-26	LAL 107 @ OKC 125	OKC -15.5	OKC W
May 5, 2025-26	LAL 90 @ OKC 108	OKC -15.5	OKC W
Apr 7, 2025-26	OKC 123 @ LAL 87	LAL +17.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Thunder 2, Lakers 2, even 1

ThunderBetterLakers

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

Even

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCSmall

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

LALBig

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

LALSmall

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCBig

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

ThunderBetterLakers

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Even

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

Even

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

OKCBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

LAL6.7 #3

OKC		LAL
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.18 #2
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
30.9 #26	3-point %	38.9 #4
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
21.7 #29	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
8.3 #20	Steals per game	10.4 #4
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Lakers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Lakers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Lakers