Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 7, 10:30 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Lakers
BKN	This season	LAL
1-5	Record	5-2
3-3	ATS	4-3
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 122–107 · win probability LAL 85%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

BKN 1, LAL 6 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs BKN defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

LALBig

BKN offense vs LAL defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

BKNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, LAL 67.4%

LALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, LAL 37.2. Allowed: BKN 33.5, LAL 30.7

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, BKN 1-2 away

LALSmall

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 48.0% and 45.7% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, LAL 17.8%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: BKN away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 9	vs MIL	L108–125LO
Mar 11	@ ATL	L107–141LO
Mar 13	@ DET	L94–110LU

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 11	vs NY	W110–97WU
Mar 12	vs CLE	W127–113WO
Mar 14	vs GS	L95–112LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BKN 4–6 LALLAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 2 meetings · BKN 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 27, 2025-26	BKN 99 @ LAL 116	LAL -18.5	BKN W
Feb 3, 2025-26	LAL 125 @ BKN 109	BKN +7.5	LAL W
Mar 10, 2024-25	LAL 108 @ BKN 111	BKN +5.5	BKN W
Jan 17, 2024-25	BKN 101 @ LAL 102	LAL -9.5	BKN W
Mar 31, 2023-24	LAL 116 @ BKN 104	BKN +6.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 1, Lakers 3, even 1

NetsBetterLakers

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

LALBig

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

LALBig

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

Even

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

BKNSmall

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

LALBig

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

NetsBetterLakers

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

LALBig

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

LALBig

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

LAL6.7 #3

BKN		LAL
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.18 #2
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
35.1 #15	3-point %	38.9 #4
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
22.8 #28	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
9.0 #14	Steals per game	10.4 #4
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Lakers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Lakers

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Lakers