Brooklyn Nets at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 4, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Clippers
BKN	This season	LAC
1-5	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 116–106 · win probability LAC 77%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

BKN 2, LAC 3 · 2026-27 so far

LACBig

BKN offense vs LAC defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, LAC 70.9%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

BKNSmall

LAC offense vs BKN defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

LACSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, LAC 28.0. Allowed: BKN 33.5, LAC 24.7

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, BKN 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

Even

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 48.0% and 42.3% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, LAC 17.0%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: BKN away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 7	@ LAL	L99–116WU
Mar 9	vs MIL	L108–125LO
Mar 11	@ ATL	L107–141LO

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 6	@ SAC	W121–96WU
Mar 8	vs HOU	W105–102WU
Mar 10	vs NY	W126–118WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BKN 3–7 LACLAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAC has won the last 5 meetings · BKN 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 25, 2025-26	BKN 89 @ LAC 126	LAC -10.5	LAC W
Jan 9, 2025-26	LAC 121 @ BKN 105	BKN +5.5	LAC W
Mar 28, 2024-25	LAC 132 @ BKN 100	BKN +12.5	LAC W
Jan 15, 2024-25	BKN 67 @ LAC 126	LAC -15.5	LAC W
Jan 21, 2023-24	BKN 114 @ LAC 125	LAC -9.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Clippers has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 0, Clippers 1, even 4

NetsBetterClippers

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

Even

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

LACSmall

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

Even

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

Even

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

Even

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

NetsBetterClippers

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

LACBig

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

BKNSmall

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

LACBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

BKNBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

LAC4.2 #22

BKN		LAC
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.04 #27
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
35.1 #15	3-point %	38.6 #5
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
22.8 #28	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
9.0 #14	Steals per game	11.3 #3
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Clippers

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Clippers

Clippers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Clippers