Utah Jazz at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 6, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jazz and Wizards
UTAH	This season	WSH
1-5	Record	3-3
1-5	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WSH 119–115 · win probability WSH 61%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

UTAH 1, WSH 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UTAHBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, WSH 68.0%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, WSH 34.2. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, WSH 21.8

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

WSHBig

Three-pointers

UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 41.7% and 37.6% of their shots

WSHBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, WSH 13.3%

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, UTAH 0-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

UTAH offense vs WSH defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

WSH offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-1	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: UTAH away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 8	@ PHI	L116–126LO
Mar 10	vs HOU	L106–140LO
Mar 12	vs SAC	L111–116LU

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 9	@ SA	L113–124WU
Mar 11	@ DAL	L105–111LU
Mar 14	@ MIN	L115–141LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

UTAH 6–4 WSHUTAH leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · UTAH 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 25, 2025-26	WSH 133 @ UTAH 110	UTAH -3.5	WSH W
Mar 5, 2025-26	UTAH 122 @ WSH 112	WSH -3.5	UTAH W
Mar 19, 2024-25	WSH 112 @ UTAH 128	UTAH -2.5	UTAH W
Mar 5, 2024-25	UTAH 122 @ WSH 125	WSH -5.5	UTAH W
Mar 4, 2023-24	WSH 115 @ UTAH 127	UTAH -4.5	UTAH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wizards has the better starters

Position by position: Jazz 1, Wizards 2, even 2

JazzBetterWizards

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

WSHSmall

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

Even

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

WSHBig

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

UTAHBig

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

JazzBetterWizards

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Even

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

Even

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

WSHBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

UTAHBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTAH betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTAH108.7 #24

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

UTAH1.05 #25

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

UTAH104.0 #12

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTAH51.0 #24

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

UTAH32.6 #23

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

UTAH41.7 #21

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

UTAH31.6 #10

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTAH17.0 #25

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

UTAH25.7 #22

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

UTAH26.2 #19

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

UTAH118.8 #25

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

UTAH1.14 #25

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

UTAH53.9 #18

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

UTAH37.6 #25

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

UTAH13.3 #28

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

UTAH77.1 #4

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

UTAH6.2 #29

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

UTAH6.5 #5

WSH5.3 #9

UTAH		WSH
Scoring
108.7 #24	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.05 #25	Points per possession	1.08 #19
104.0 #12	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
51.0 #24	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
32.6 #23	3-point %	29.3 #29
41.7 #21	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
31.6 #10	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
17.0 #25	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
25.7 #22	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
26.2 #19	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
118.8 #25	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.14 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
53.9 #18	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
37.6 #25	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
13.3 #28	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
77.1 #4	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
6.2 #29	Steals per game	7.2 #24
6.5 #5	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Jazz @ Wizards

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Jazz

Wizards

Wizards has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jazz

Wizards