Utah Jazz at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 8, 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jazz and 76ers
UTAH	This season	PHI
1-5	Record	6-1
1-5	ATS	4-3
2-4	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 118–109 · win probability PHI 75%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

UTAH 1, PHI 7 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, PHI 17.0%

Context

Schedule so far

UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UTAHBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, PHI 70.8%

PHIBig

UTAH offense vs PHI defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Three-pointers

UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 41.7% and 39.5% of their shots

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

PHISmall

PHI offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, UTAH 0-1 away

PHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, PHI 28.7. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, PHI 28.5

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-1	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: UTAH away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 10	vs HOU	L106–140LO
Mar 12	vs SAC	L111–116LU
Mar 17	vs ATL	L119–121WU

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 11	@ SA	L102–115LU
Mar 13	@ MIN	W115–103WU
Mar 15	vs TOR	W115–102WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

UTAH 3–7 PHIPHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 5 meetings · UTAH 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 21, 2025-26	PHI 126 @ UTAH 116	UTAH +5.5	PHI W
Mar 4, 2025-26	UTAH 102 @ PHI 106	PHI -7.5	UTAH W
Mar 9, 2024-25	UTAH 122 @ PHI 126	PHI -6.5	UTAH W
Dec 28, 2024-25	PHI 114 @ UTAH 111	UTAH +7.5	UTAH W
Feb 1, 2023-24	PHI 127 @ UTAH 124	UTAH -4.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: Jazz 1, 76ers 4, even 0

JazzBetter76ers

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

PHIBig

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

PHISmall

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

PHIBig

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

UTAHBig

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

PHIBig

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

JazzBetter76ers

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

PHISmall

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

PHISmall

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTAH betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTAH108.7 #24

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

UTAH1.05 #25

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

UTAH104.0 #12

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTAH51.0 #24

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

UTAH32.6 #23

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

UTAH41.7 #21

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

UTAH31.6 #10

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTAH17.0 #25

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

UTAH25.7 #22

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

UTAH26.2 #19

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

UTAH118.8 #25

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

UTAH1.14 #25

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

UTAH53.9 #18

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

UTAH37.6 #25

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

UTAH13.3 #28

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

UTAH77.1 #4

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

UTAH6.2 #29

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

UTAH6.5 #5

PHI5.0 #14

UTAH		PHI
Scoring
108.7 #24	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.05 #25	Points per possession	1.06 #22
104.0 #12	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
51.0 #24	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
32.6 #23	3-point %	34.0 #20
41.7 #21	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
31.6 #10	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
17.0 #25	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
25.7 #22	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
26.2 #19	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
118.8 #25	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.14 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
53.9 #18	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
37.6 #25	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
13.3 #28	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
77.1 #4	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
6.2 #29	Steals per game	9.6 #7
6.5 #5	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Jazz @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Jazz

76ers

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jazz

76ers