Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 8, 7:30 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat

#21PHXSuns

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Heat
PHX	This season	MIA
1-3	Record	2-4
0-4	ATS	2-4
3-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 120–116 · win probability MIA 62%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

PHX 1, MIA 4 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs PHX defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, MIA 27.3. Allowed: PHX 31.1, MIA 23.2

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHXSmall

PHX offense vs MIA defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

MIASmall

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, PHX 0-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

Even

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 45.1% and 41.7% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, MIA 15.4%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, MIA 72.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: PHX away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 9	@ ORL	L111–115LO
Mar 11	@ CHI	W120–110LU
Mar 13	@ CHA	L107–127LO

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 10	vs ORL	L117–121LO
Mar 12	@ MIL	W112–105WU
Mar 14	@ DEN	W147–123WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHX 4–6 MIAMIA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIA has won the last 3 meetings · PHX 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 25, 2025-26	MIA 111 @ PHX 102	PHX -4.5	MIA W
Jan 13, 2025-26	PHX 121 @ MIA 127	MIA -1.5	MIA W
Dec 7, 2024-25	PHX 111 @ MIA 121	MIA -5.5	MIA W
Nov 6, 2024-25	MIA 112 @ PHX 115	PHX -5.5	MIA W
Jan 29, 2023-24	PHX 118 @ MIA 105	MIA -2.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 1, Heat 2, even 2

SunsBetterHeat

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXBig

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

Even

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

MIABig

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

Even

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

MIABig

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

SunsBetterHeat

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

PHXSmall

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

MIABig

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

MIA5.0 #13

PHX		MIA
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.11 #14
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
35.0 #16	3-point %	34.1 #19
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
27.5 #8	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
9.0 #15	Steals per game	8.3 #19
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Heat

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Heat

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Heat