Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 8, 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Pacers
CHA	This season	IND
3-4	Record	2-5
3-4	ATS	3-4
1-6	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 111–109 · win probability CHA 54%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

CHA 2, IND 5 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

IND offense vs CHA defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, IND 72.7%

INDBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, IND 14.8%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, IND 14.9%

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

INDSmall

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 50.8% and 43.1% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

INDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

INDSmall

CHA offense vs IND defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, IND 31.2. Allowed: CHA 28.4, IND 32.1

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: CHA away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 10	vs NO	W102–95WU
Mar 11	vs IND	W129–108WO
Mar 13	vs PHX	W127–107WO

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 11	@ CHA	L108–129LO
Mar 13	@ HOU	L114–118WO
Mar 15	@ BKN	L90–98LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

CHA 11–7 INDCHA leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 2 meetings · CHA 13-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 3, 2025-26	IND 108 @ CHA 129	CHA -15.5	CHA W
Feb 26, 2025-26	CHA 133 @ IND 109	IND +12.5	CHA W
Jan 8, 2025-26	IND 114 @ CHA 112	CHA -4.5	IND W
Nov 19, 2025-26	CHA 118 @ IND 127	IND +1.5	IND W
Apr 2, 2024-25	CHA 105 @ IND 119	IND -15.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Hornets 1, Pacers 1, even 3

HornetsBetterPacers

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

INDBig

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

CHASmall

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

Even

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

Even

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

Even

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

HornetsBetterPacers

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

INDSmall

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHABig

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

INDBig

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

CHABig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

CHABig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

IND4.0 #26

CHA		IND
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	112.9 #18
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.10 #17
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
29.6 #28	3-point %	34.1 #18
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
21.6 #30	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
7.1 #25	Steals per game	6.9 #27
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Pacers

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Pacers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Pacers