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NBA · Tue, Mar 2

Warriors @ Mavericks

American Airlines Center · at Mavericks · Conference game
#13GSWarriors
@
#17DALMavericks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GSThis seasonDAL
4-3Record4-2
5-2ATS4-2
4-3O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 117–116 · win probability DAL 55%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 232.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 4, DAL 2 · 2026-27 so far
DALBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
GSBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: GS 17.6%, DAL 14.5%
GSSmall
GS offense vs DAL defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
GSSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, DAL 69.4%
GSSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GS 28.8, DAL 21.4. Allowed: GS 27.3, DAL 27.2
DALSmall
Home court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, GS 2-2 away
Context
Schedule so far
GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Recent form
Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
Even
DAL offense vs GS defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 47.1% and 42.1% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -1.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model232.9
Model edge—
Projected score
GS 115.5 · DAL 117.4
Win probability
DAL 55%
1st half
Spread
DAL -0.9
Total
116.5
Projected score
GS 57.8 · DAL 58.7
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Warriors 2, Mavericks 2, even 1
WarriorsBetterMavericks
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
GSBig
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
DALSmall
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
DALBig
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
Even
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
GSSmall
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
WarriorsBetterMavericks
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
GSSmall
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
Even
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
GSBig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
DALBig
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
GSSmall
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGS betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GSDAL
Scoring
117.7 #11Points per game114.3 #14
1.17 #3Points per possession1.12 #11
101.4 #25Pace (possessions)102.8 #18
Shooting
55.3 #8Effective FG%56.9 #2
40.0 #23-point %35.1 #14
47.1 #53-point attempt rate42.1 #18
28.8 #15Free throw rate21.4 #29
Possessions
16.7 #22Turnover rate16.8 #23
33.2 #1Offensive rebound rate27.8 #13
27.4 #10Assists per game27.0 #12
Defense
114.9 #16Points allowed111.8 #14
1.13 #21Points allowed per possession1.08 #13
56.0 #25Opponent effective FG%51.3 #9
35.2 #16Opponent 3-point %29.7 #2
17.6 #5Turnovers forced14.5 #24
70.4 #23Defensive rebound rate69.4 #25
9.1 #11Steals per game8.8 #16
4.1 #24Blocks per game6.8 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.