Smoothie King Center · at Pelicans · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 UTAH | This season | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 2-4 |
| 1-5 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 4-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects NO 122–115 · win probability NO 69%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 237.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: NO has more of the edges
UTAH 1, NO 7 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NOBigNO offense vs UTAH defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
NOBigRecent form
Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8
NOBigThree-pointers
UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 41.7% and 32.8% of their shots
NOSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, NO 17.4%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, NO 16.3%
NOSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, NO 35.3. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, NO 30.6
NOSmallShooting
Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2
Context
Tempo
About 106 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points
NOSmallHome court
NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, UTAH 0-1 away
UTAHSmallUTAH offense vs NO defense
Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, NO 76.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelNO -6.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model237.4
Model edge—
Projected score
UTAH 115.3 · NO 122.1
Win probability
NO 69%
1st half
Spread
NO -3.7
Total
118.6
Projected score
UTAH 57.5 · NO 61.1
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTAHlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% |
| NOlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22
UTAH 8–10 NONO leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · UTAH 10-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026-27 | NO 119 @ UTAH 120 | UTAH -1.5 | NO W |
| Apr 7, 2025-26 | UTAH 137 @ NO 156 | NO -6.5 | NO W |
| Feb 28, 2025-26 | NO 115 @ UTAH 105 | UTAH +5.5 | NO W |
| Feb 26, 2025-26 | NO 129 @ UTAH 118 | UTAH +6.5 | NO W |
| Mar 2, 2024-25 | NO 128 @ UTAH 121 | UTAH +7.5 | UTAH W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Jazz
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
1-5
17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
MEM
MEML 103-123
−18.5
23
vsNO
NOW 120-119
−0.5
25
vs
LAL
LALL 123-132
−2.5
26
vsMEM
MEML 105-110
−3.5
28
vs
SA
SAL 111-117
+7.5
31
vs
POR
PORL 90-112
−15.5
covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@MEM
MEML 103-123
−14.5
23
vsNO
NOW 120-119
+0.5
25
vsLAL
LALL 123-132
+17.5
26
vsMEM
MEML 105-110
−22.5
28
vsSA
SAL 111-117
−4.5
31
vsPOR
PORL 90-112
−30.5
over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pelicans
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
IND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@
DEN
DENL 135-141
+5.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−8.5
29
vs
SAC
SACW 132-120
+5.5
31
vs
ATL
ATLW 121-99
+27.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+36.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−46.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+17.5
31
vsATL
ATLW 121-99
−19.5
over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pelicans has the better starters
Position by position: Jazz 1, Pelicans 3, even 1
JazzBetterPelicans
G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast
Score 8
→NOBig
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast
Score 45
G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 11
=Even
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 19
G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 17
→NOBig
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 81
F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 94
←UTAHSmall
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 75
C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 36
→NOSmall
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast
Score 52
JazzBetterPelicans
UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2
=Even
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0
→NOBig
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players
→NOBig
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players
=Even
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
Bench+2.1 · 5 players
←UTAHBig
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUTAH betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
JazzGuards
K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min
Forwards
L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min
Centers
J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min
Out
J. JacksonOut
PelicansGuards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
UTAH108.7 #24NO119.7 #7Points per possession
UTAH1.05 #25NO1.10 #15Pace (possessions)
UTAH104.0 #12NO108.0 #2Shooting
Effective FG%
UTAH51.0 #24NO55.1 #93-point %
UTAH32.6 #23NO31.2 #253-point attempt rate
UTAH41.7 #21NO32.8 #30Free throw rate
UTAH31.6 #10NO35.3 #4Possessions
Turnover rate
UTAH17.0 #25NO17.4 #26Offensive rebound rate
UTAH25.7 #22NO24.3 #25Assists per game
UTAH26.2 #19NO25.5 #21Defense
Points allowed
UTAH118.8 #25NO117.8 #24Points allowed per possession
UTAH1.14 #25NO1.09 #16Opponent effective FG%
UTAH53.9 #18NO54.2 #21Opponent 3-point %
UTAH37.6 #25NO30.5 #5Turnovers forced
UTAH13.3 #28NO16.3 #10Defensive rebound rate
UTAH77.1 #4NO76.4 #6Steals per game
UTAH6.2 #29NO13.7 #1Blocks per game
UTAH6.5 #5NO4.8 #16| UTAH | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 108.7 #24 | Points per game | 119.7 #7 |
| 1.05 #25 | Points per possession | 1.10 #15 |
| 104.0 #12 | Pace (possessions) | 108.0 #2 |
| Shooting | ||
| 51.0 #24 | Effective FG% | 55.1 #9 |
| 32.6 #23 | 3-point % | 31.2 #25 |
| 41.7 #21 | 3-point attempt rate | 32.8 #30 |
| 31.6 #10 | Free throw rate | 35.3 #4 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.0 #25 | Turnover rate | 17.4 #26 |
| 25.7 #22 | Offensive rebound rate | 24.3 #25 |
| 26.2 #19 | Assists per game | 25.5 #21 |
| Defense | ||
| 118.8 #25 | Points allowed | 117.8 #24 |
| 1.14 #25 | Points allowed per possession | 1.09 #16 |
| 53.9 #18 | Opponent effective FG% | 54.2 #21 |
| 37.6 #25 | Opponent 3-point % | 30.5 #5 |
| 13.3 #28 | Turnovers forced | 16.3 #10 |
| 77.1 #4 | Defensive rebound rate | 76.4 #6 |
| 6.2 #29 | Steals per game | 13.7 #1 |
| 6.5 #5 | Blocks per game | 4.8 #16 |
Jazz
1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
- Lvs Spurs111–117
- Lvs Grizzlies105–110
- Lvs Lakers123–132
- Wvs Pelicans120–119
A week or more of rest.
Pelicans
2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Hawks121–99
- Wvs Kings132–120
- Lvs Nuggets91–104
- L@ Nuggets135–141
- L@ Jazz119–120
A week or more of rest.