Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 1, 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · at Pistons · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Pistons
CHI	This season	DET
1-5	Record	5-1
3-3	ATS	5-1
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 124–107 · win probability DET 89%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

CHI 0, DET 6 · 2026-27 so far

DETBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 47.9% and 43.3% of their shots

DETBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points

DETBig

DET offense vs CHI defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

DETBig

CHI offense vs DET defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

DETBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, DET 15.6%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, DET 17.1%

DETSmall

Home court

DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, DET 72.8%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, DET 28.9. Allowed: CHI 33.5, DET 28.1

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	2-0	—

Venue/role: CHI away; DET home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 3	@ ATL	W126–123WU
Mar 6	vs CHA	L99–131LU
Mar 7	vs POR	L112–121LU

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 2	@ MIL	W137–111WO
Mar 5	vs BOS	W121–113WO
Mar 9	vs CLE	L94–125LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

CHI 12–8 DETCHI leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 3 meetings · CHI 10-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 21, 2025-26	DET 126 @ CHI 110	CHI +10.5	DET W
Jan 7, 2025-26	CHI 93 @ DET 108	DET -7.5	DET W
Nov 12, 2025-26	CHI 113 @ DET 124	DET +3.5	DET W
Oct 22, 2025-26	DET 111 @ CHI 115	CHI +3.5	CHI W
Feb 12, 2024-25	DET 128 @ CHI 110	CHI +6.5	DET W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 1, Pistons 3, even 1

BullsBetterPistons

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

CHISmall

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

DETBig

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

DETBig

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

DETBig

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

Even

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

BullsBetterPistons

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

DETBig

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

DETBig

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

DETBig

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

DETBig

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

DETBig

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

DET109.8 #21

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

DET1.09 #18

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

DET100.9 #29

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

DET53.1 #17

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

DET36.3 #9

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

DET43.3 #13

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

DET28.9 #14

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

DET15.6 #17

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

DET27.2 #17

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

DET26.7 #15

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

DET101.8 #1

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

DET1.01 #1

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

DET48.8 #2

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

DET32.5 #10

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

DET17.1 #6

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

DET72.8 #15

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

DET9.0 #12

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

DET6.7 #4

CHI		DET
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	109.8 #21
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.09 #18
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	100.9 #29
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	53.1 #17
28.1 #30	3-point %	36.3 #9
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	43.3 #13
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	28.9 #14
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	15.6 #17
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #17
24.3 #25	Assists per game	26.7 #15
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	101.8 #1
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #1
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	48.8 #2
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	32.5 #10
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	17.1 #6
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	72.8 #15
8.7 #17	Steals per game	9.0 #12
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	6.7 #4

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Pistons

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Pistons

Pistons has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Pistons