Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Mar 5, 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · at Pistons · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Pistons
BOS	This season	DET
5-1	Record	5-1
3-3	ATS	5-1
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 109–108 · win probability DET 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 217.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

BOS 2, DET 2 · 2026-27 so far

DETBig

BOS offense vs DET defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

DET offense vs BOS defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, DET 15.6%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, DET 17.1%

DETSmall

Home court

DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, DET 72.8%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, DET 28.9. Allowed: BOS 31.7, DET 28.1

Even

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 45.9% and 43.3% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	2-0	—

Venue/role: BOS away; DET home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 7	vs PHI	L100–109LO
Mar 9	@ CHI	W125–111LU
Mar 11	vs MEM	W117–112LU

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 9	vs CLE	L94–125LO
Mar 11	vs MIL	W137–111WO
Mar 13	vs BKN	W110–94WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

BOS 14–6 DETBOS leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 3 meetings · BOS 9-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 20, 2026-27	BOS 113 @ DET 121	DET +1.5	DET W
Jan 19, 2025-26	BOS 103 @ DET 104	DET -2.5	BOS W
Dec 15, 2025-26	DET 112 @ BOS 105	BOS -1.5	DET W
Nov 26, 2025-26	DET 114 @ BOS 117	BOS +1.5	BOS W
Oct 26, 2025-26	BOS 113 @ DET 119	DET -2.5	DET W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 2, Pistons 1, even 2

CelticsBetterPistons

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSBig

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

Even

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

Even

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

DETSmall

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

BOSSmall

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

CelticsBetterPistons

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

DETBig

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSBig

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSSmall

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

DET109.8 #21

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

DET1.09 #18

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

DET100.9 #29

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

DET53.1 #17

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

DET36.3 #9

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

DET43.3 #13

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

DET28.9 #14

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

DET15.6 #17

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

DET27.2 #17

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

DET26.7 #15

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

DET101.8 #1

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

DET1.01 #1

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

DET48.8 #2

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

DET32.5 #10

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

DET17.1 #6

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

DET72.8 #15

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

DET9.0 #12

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

DET6.7 #4

BOS		DET
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	109.8 #21
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.09 #18
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	100.9 #29
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	53.1 #17
35.5 #10	3-point %	36.3 #9
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	43.3 #13
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	28.9 #14
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	15.6 #17
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #17
28.0 #6	Assists per game	26.7 #15
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	101.8 #1
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #1
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	48.8 #2
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	32.5 #10
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	17.1 #6
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	72.8 #15
9.2 #9	Steals per game	9.0 #12
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	6.7 #4

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Pistons

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Pistons

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Pistons