Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 7, 1:00 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Celtics
PHI	This season	BOS
6-1	Record	5-1
4-3	ATS	3-3
2-5	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 113–105 · win probability BOS 73%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 218.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

PHI 1, BOS 4 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

PHI offense vs BOS defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

BOSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, BOS 68.4%

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHISmall

BOS offense vs PHI defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, PHI 3-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 39.5% and 45.9% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, BOS 17.8%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, BOS 32.3. Allowed: PHI 28.5, BOS 31.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: PHI away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 8	vs UTAH	W126–116WO
Mar 11	@ SA	L102–115LU
Mar 13	@ MIN	W115–103WU

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 9	@ CHI	W125–111LU
Mar 11	vs MEM	W117–112LU
Mar 12	vs OKC	W119–109WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 34 since 2021-22

PHI 14–20 BOSBOS leads · 34 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 3 meetings · PHI 18-16 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
May 2, 2025-26	PHI 109 @ BOS 100	BOS -3.5	PHI W
Apr 30, 2025-26	BOS 93 @ PHI 106	PHI +6.5	PHI W
Apr 28, 2025-26	PHI 113 @ BOS 97	BOS -10.5	PHI W
Apr 26, 2025-26	BOS 128 @ PHI 96	PHI +6.5	BOS W
Apr 24, 2025-26	BOS 108 @ PHI 100	PHI +8.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 1, Celtics 2, even 2

76ersBetterCeltics

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

BOSSmall

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

BOSBig

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

Even

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

Even

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHISmall

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

76ersBetterCeltics

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

BOSBig

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

PHISmall

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

BOS4.0 #25

PHI		BOS
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.15 #6
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
34.0 #20	3-point %	35.5 #10
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
25.1 #22	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
9.6 #7	Steals per game	9.2 #9
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Celtics