Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 3, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Hawks
CHI	This season	ATL
1-5	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	3-4
2-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 126–114 · win probability ATL 81%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 240.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

CHI 3, ATL 5 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

ATL offense vs CHI defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, ATL 18.3%

ATLBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 47.9% and 44.7% of their shots

CHIBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, ATL 23.4. Allowed: CHI 33.5, ATL 32.1

ATLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

CHISmall

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

CHISmall

CHI offense vs ATL defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Context

Tempo

About 108 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, ATL 70.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: CHI away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 6	vs CHA	L99–131LU
Mar 7	vs POR	L112–121LU
Mar 9	vs BOS	L111–125WU

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 4	vs MEM	W146–107WO
Mar 6	@ CLE	W114–111WU
Mar 8	@ MEM	W146–107WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

CHI 13–6 ATLCHI leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · CHI has won the last 3 meetings · CHI 14-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 23, 2025-26	CHI 126 @ ATL 123	ATL -3.5	CHI W
Dec 21, 2025-26	CHI 152 @ ATL 150	ATL -4.5	CHI W
Oct 27, 2025-26	ATL 123 @ CHI 128	CHI +2.5	CHI W
Jan 15, 2024-25	ATL 110 @ CHI 94	CHI -6.5	ATL W
Dec 26, 2024-25	CHI 133 @ ATL 141	ATL -4.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 0, Hawks 3, even 2

BullsBetterHawks

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

Even

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

ATLBig

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

ATLBig

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

ATLBig

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

Even

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

BullsBetterHawks

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

CHISmall

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

ATLBig

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

ATLBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

ATLSmall

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

ATL3.7 #29

CHI		ATL
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.10 #16
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
28.1 #30	3-point %	32.8 #22
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
24.3 #25	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
8.7 #17	Steals per game	9.4 #8
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Hawks

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Hawks

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Hawks