Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 6, 5:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Bulls
CHA	This season	CHI
3-4	Record	1-5
3-4	ATS	3-3
1-6	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 116–111 · win probability CHA 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

CHA 3, CHI 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, CHI 69.8%

CHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, CHI 38.3. Allowed: CHA 28.4, CHI 33.5

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHASmall

CHI offense vs CHA defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

CHASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

CHISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, CHI 14.7%

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 50.8% and 47.9% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

CHA offense vs CHI defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: CHA away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 8	@ IND	W129–108WO
Mar 10	vs NO	W102–95WU
Mar 11	vs IND	W129–108WO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 7	vs POR	L112–121LU
Mar 9	vs BOS	L111–125WU
Mar 11	vs PHX	L110–120WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

CHA 6–13 CHICHI leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 2 meetings · CHA 6-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 24, 2025-26	CHA 131 @ CHI 99	CHI +8.5	CHA W
Jan 3, 2025-26	CHA 112 @ CHI 99	CHI -2.5	CHA W
Dec 12, 2025-26	CHI 129 @ CHA 126	CHA +2.5	CHI W
Nov 28, 2025-26	CHI 116 @ CHA 123	CHA +2.5	CHA W
Apr 6, 2024-25	CHI 131 @ CHA 117	CHA +7.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hornets has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 3, Bulls 1, even 1

HornetsBetterBulls

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

CHIBig

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

CHASmall

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

CHABig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

CHABig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

Even

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

HornetsBetterBulls

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Even

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHASmall

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

CHABig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

CHASmall

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

CHI5.0 #12

CHA		CHI
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	113.5 #16
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.04 #26
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
29.6 #28	3-point %	28.1 #30
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
21.6 #30	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
7.1 #25	Steals per game	8.7 #17
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Bulls

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Bulls

Hornets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Bulls