Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 6, 3:00 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Heat
IND	This season	MIA
2-5	Record	2-4
3-4	ATS	2-4
3-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 122–115 · win probability MIA 71%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

IND 1, MIA 3 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs IND defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MIASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, MIA 27.3. Allowed: IND 32.1, MIA 23.2

INDSmall

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 43.1% and 41.7% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, IND 2-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: IND 14.9%, MIA 15.4%

Even

IND offense vs MIA defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, MIA 72.3%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: IND away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 8	vs CHA	L108–129LO
Mar 11	@ CHA	L108–129LO
Mar 13	@ HOU	L114–118WO

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 8	vs PHX	W111–102WU
Mar 10	vs ORL	L117–121LO
Mar 12	@ MIL	W112–105WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

IND 9–9 MIASeries tied · 18 games since 2021-22 · IND 9-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 30, 2026-27	IND 125 @ MIA 145	MIA -8.5	MIA W
Mar 29, 2025-26	MIA 118 @ IND 135	IND +8.5	IND W
Jan 10, 2025-26	MIA 99 @ IND 123	IND +6.5	IND W
Dec 27, 2025-26	IND 116 @ MIA 142	MIA -6.5	MIA W
Feb 28, 2024-25	IND 120 @ MIA 125	MIA +2.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 1, Heat 2, even 2

PacersBetterHeat

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

INDSmall

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

Even

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

MIASmall

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

Even

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

MIABig

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

PacersBetterHeat

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Even

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

MIABig

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

INDBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

MIABig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

MIA5.0 #13

IND		MIA
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.11 #14
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
34.1 #18	3-point %	34.1 #19
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
28.0 #7	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
6.9 #27	Steals per game	8.3 #19
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Heat

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Heat

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Heat