Portland Trail Blazers at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 7, 5:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Trail Blazers and Bulls
POR	This season	CHI
4-1	Record	1-5
3-2	ATS	3-3
2-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 124–113 · win probability POR 80%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

POR 6, CHI 1 · 2026-27 so far

PORBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

PORBig

POR offense vs CHI defense

Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

PORBig

Three-pointers

POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 51.5% and 47.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, CHI 69.8%

PORSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: POR 35.9, CHI 38.3. Allowed: POR 27.8, CHI 33.5

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

PORSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: POR 14.8%, CHI 14.7%

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, POR 3-0 away

Even

CHI offense vs POR defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
POR WLWLW	3-2	60%	2-1	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: POR away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
POR UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PORlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Trail Blazers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 9	@ GS	L97–119LU
Mar 10	vs DEN	L132–137WO
Mar 13	vs LAC	W116–97WU

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 9	vs BOS	L111–125WU
Mar 11	vs PHX	L110–120WU
Mar 13	vs MEM	L124–125LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

POR 3–7 CHICHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · POR 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 26, 2025-26	POR 121 @ CHI 112	CHI +3.5	POR W
Nov 19, 2025-26	CHI 122 @ POR 121	POR +3.5	POR W
Apr 4, 2024-25	POR 113 @ CHI 118	CHI -6.5	POR W
Jan 19, 2024-25	CHI 102 @ POR 113	POR +4.5	POR W
Mar 18, 2023-24	POR 107 @ CHI 110	CHI -8.5	POR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Trail Blazers

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsPHX	W 124-83	-3.5	W +37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 23	@SAC	W 128-120	-9.5	L −1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 27	@LAL	W 136-129	+1.5	W +8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 29	vsMEM	L 103-124	-7.5	L −28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	@UTAH	W 112-90	-6.5	W +15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

+37.5

SAC

W 128-120

−1.5

LAL

W 136-129

+8.5

MEM

L 103-124

−28.5

UTAH

W 112-90

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

−25.5

SAC

W 128-120

+16.5

LAL

W 136-129

+30.5

MEM

L 103-124

−6.5

UTAH

W 112-90

−30.5

over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Position by position: Trail Blazers 4, Bulls 0, even 1

Trail BlazersBetterBulls

G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89

PORSmall

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

Even

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82

PORBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

PORBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74

PORBig

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

Trail BlazersBetterBulls

POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4

PORBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8

Even

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players

PORBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players

PORBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench+15.6 · 5 players

PORBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPOR betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Trail Blazers

Guards

D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min

Forwards

D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min

Centers

D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min

Out

J. MorantOut

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

POR120.6 #4

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

POR1.16 #5

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

POR103.5 #14

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

POR56.2 #4

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

POR35.3 #12

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

POR51.5 #1

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

POR35.9 #3

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

POR14.6 #9

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

POR27.6 #14

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

POR26.2 #17

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

POR109.2 #10

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

POR1.06 #10

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

POR51.3 #8

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

POR32.1 #8

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

POR14.8 #20

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

POR77.3 #3

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

POR8.6 #18

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

POR4.2 #21

CHI5.0 #12

POR		CHI
Scoring
120.6 #4	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.16 #5	Points per possession	1.04 #26
103.5 #14	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
56.2 #4	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
35.3 #12	3-point %	28.1 #30
51.5 #1	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
35.9 #3	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
14.6 #9	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
27.6 #14	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
26.2 #17	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
109.2 #10	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.06 #10	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
51.3 #8	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
32.1 #8	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
14.8 #20	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
77.3 #3	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
8.6 #18	Steals per game	8.7 #17
4.2 #21	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Jazz112–90
Lvs Grizzlies103–124
W@ Lakers136–129
W@ Kings128–120
Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers @ Bulls

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Trail Blazers

Bulls

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Trail Blazers

Bulls