State Farm Arena · at Hawks
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MEM | This season | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 3-4 |
| 6-0 | ATS | 3-4 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects ATL 119–114 · win probability ATL 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges
MEM 5, ATL 3 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MEMBigShooting
Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5
ATLBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, ATL 18.3%
MEMBigThree-pointers
MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 42.1% and 44.7% of their shots
MEMBigRecent form
Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6
MEMBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, ATL 70.9%
MEMSmallMEM offense vs ATL defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
ATLSmallATL offense vs MEM defense
Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
ATLSmallHome court
ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, MEM 4-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, ATL 23.4. Allowed: MEM 31.4, ATL 32.1
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelATL -4.6
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.0
Model edge—
Projected score
MEM 114.2 · ATL 118.8
Win probability
ATL 63%
1st half
Spread
ATL -2.4
Total
116.5
Projected score
MEM 57.1 · ATL 59.5
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEMlast 6 | 6-0 100% | 6-0 100% | 2-4 33% |
| ATLlast 7 | 3-4 43% | 3-4 43% | 4-3 57% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
MEM 4–6 ATLATL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings · MEM 4-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025-26 | MEM 107 @ ATL 146 | ATL -13.5 | ATL W |
| Jan 21, 2025-26 | ATL 124 @ MEM 122 | MEM -1.5 | ATL W |
| Mar 3, 2024-25 | ATL 132 @ MEM 130 | MEM -7.5 | ATL W |
| Dec 21, 2024-25 | MEM 128 @ ATL 112 | ATL +1.5 | MEM W |
| Mar 8, 2023-24 | ATL 99 @ MEM 92 | MEM +3.5 | ATL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Grizzlies
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
6-0
100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
UTAH
UTAHW 123-103
+18.5
23
@
GS
GSW 111-108
+7.5
25
@
SAC
SACW 123-112
+7.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
+3.5
29
@
POR
PORW 124-103
+28.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+23.5
covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsUTAH
UTAHW 123-103
−14.5
23
@GS
GSW 111-108
−17.5
25
@SAC
SACW 123-112
+0.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
−22.5
29
@POR
PORW 124-103
−6.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+11.5
over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Hawks
7 games played
Straight up
3-4
43% wins
Against the spread
3-4
43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @ ORL | W 132-125 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 233.5 | O 257 |
| Oct 23 | @ CHA | W 128-81 | -2.5 | W +44.5 | 226.5 | U 209 |
| Oct 24 | vs HOU | L 114-121 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 227.5 | O 235 |
| Oct 26 | @HOU | L 110-120 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 228.5 | O 230 |
| Oct 28 | vs MIA | L 117-129 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 243.5 | O 246 |
| Oct 29 | vs CLE | W 114-111 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 237.5 | U 225 |
| Oct 31 | @ NO | L 99-121 | -5.5 | L −27.5 | 239.5 | U 220 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@ORL
ORLW 132-125
+9.5
23
@CHA
CHAW 128-81
+44.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 114-121
−5.5
26
@HOU
HOUL 110-120
−5.5
28
vsMIA
MIAL 117-129
−14.5
29
vsCLE
CLEW 114-111
+1.5
31
@NO
NOL 99-121
−27.5
covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@ORL
ORLW 132-125
+23.5
23
@CHA
CHAW 128-81
−17.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 114-121
+7.5
26
@HOU
HOUL 110-120
+1.5
28
vsMIA
MIAL 117-129
+2.5
29
vsCLE
CLEW 114-111
−12.5
31
@NO
NOL 99-121
−19.5
over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Grizzlies has the better starters
Position by position: Grizzlies 2, Hawks 1, even 2
GrizzliesBetterHawks
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 97
←MEMSmall
G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 67
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast
Score 87
=Even
G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast
Score 87
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 33
→ATLSmall
G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast
Score 59
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast
Score 85
=Even
G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast
Score 78
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast
Score 92
←MEMBig
F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 30
GrizzliesBetterHawks
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
←MEMSmall
ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
→ATLSmall
ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
→ATLBig
Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
←MEMBig
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
→ATLBig
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMEM betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
GrizzliesGuards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
HawksGuards
N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min
Forwards
O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min
Out
J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MEM121.2 #1ATL116.3 #13Points per possession
MEM1.16 #4ATL1.10 #16Pace (possessions)
MEM103.6 #13ATL105.6 #7Shooting
Effective FG%
MEM55.9 #5ATL52.6 #193-point %
MEM41.7 #1ATL32.8 #223-point attempt rate
MEM42.1 #19ATL44.7 #11Free throw rate
MEM25.3 #22ATL23.4 #26Possessions
Turnover rate
MEM15.4 #16ATL13.8 #4Offensive rebound rate
MEM30.6 #5ATL27.1 #18Assists per game
MEM27.0 #13ATL30.7 #1Defense
Points allowed
MEM106.0 #3ATL115.4 #19Points allowed per possession
MEM1.03 #2ATL1.10 #17Opponent effective FG%
MEM49.2 #3ATL54.5 #22Opponent 3-point %
MEM30.0 #3ATL31.9 #7Turnovers forced
MEM15.7 #15ATL18.3 #2Defensive rebound rate
MEM75.0 #9ATL70.9 #19Steals per game
MEM6.3 #28ATL9.4 #8Blocks per game
MEM5.2 #11ATL3.7 #29| MEM | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 121.2 #1 | Points per game | 116.3 #13 |
| 1.16 #4 | Points per possession | 1.10 #16 |
| 103.6 #13 | Pace (possessions) | 105.6 #7 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.9 #5 | Effective FG% | 52.6 #19 |
| 41.7 #1 | 3-point % | 32.8 #22 |
| 42.1 #19 | 3-point attempt rate | 44.7 #11 |
| 25.3 #22 | Free throw rate | 23.4 #26 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.4 #16 | Turnover rate | 13.8 #4 |
| 30.6 #5 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.1 #18 |
| 27.0 #13 | Assists per game | 30.7 #1 |
| Defense | ||
| 106.0 #3 | Points allowed | 115.4 #19 |
| 1.03 #2 | Points allowed per possession | 1.10 #17 |
| 49.2 #3 | Opponent effective FG% | 54.5 #22 |
| 30.0 #3 | Opponent 3-point % | 31.9 #7 |
| 15.7 #15 | Turnovers forced | 18.3 #2 |
| 75.0 #9 | Defensive rebound rate | 70.9 #19 |
| 6.3 #28 | Steals per game | 9.4 #8 |
| 5.2 #11 | Blocks per game | 3.7 #29 |
Grizzlies
6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Kings136–105
- W@ Trail Blazers124–103
- W@ Jazz110–105
- W@ Kings123–112
- W@ Warriors111–108
A week or more of rest.
Hawks
3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Pelicans99–121
- Wvs Cavaliers114–111
- Lvs Heat117–129
- L@ Rockets110–120
- Lvs Rockets114–121
A week or more of rest.