Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 4, 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and 76ers
LAL	This season	PHI
5-2	Record	6-1
4-3	ATS	4-3
4-3	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 114–113 · win probability LAL 52%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

LAL 4, PHI 2 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, PHI 17.0%

LALSmall

LAL offense vs PHI defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

LALSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

LALSmall

PHI offense vs LAL defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, PHI 28.7. Allowed: LAL 30.7, PHI 28.5

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, LAL 2-1 away

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 45.7% and 39.5% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, PHI 70.8%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: LAL away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 6	vs OKC	L110–115WO
Mar 7	vs BKN	W116–99LU
Mar 11	vs NY	W110–97WU

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 7	@ BOS	W109–100WO
Mar 8	vs UTAH	W126–116WO
Mar 11	@ SA	L102–115LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAL 4–6 PHIPHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 2 meetings · LAL 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 5, 2025-26	PHI 115 @ LAL 119	LAL -2.5	LAL W
Dec 7, 2025-26	LAL 112 @ PHI 108	PHI +2.5	LAL W
Jan 28, 2024-25	LAL 104 @ PHI 118	PHI +4.5	PHI W
Nov 8, 2024-25	PHI 106 @ LAL 116	LAL -7.5	LAL W
Mar 22, 2023-24	PHI 94 @ LAL 101	LAL -7.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 3, 76ers 2, even 0

LakersBetter76ers

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

LALSmall

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

LALBig

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

PHIBig

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

LALSmall

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

PHIBig

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

LakersBetter76ers

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

LALSmall

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

LALSmall

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

PHISmall

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

PHI5.0 #14

LAL		PHI
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.06 #22
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
38.9 #4	3-point %	34.0 #20
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
23.4 #27	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
10.4 #4	Steals per game	9.6 #7
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ 76ers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

76ers

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

76ers