Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 4, 7:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Magic
IND	This season	ORL
2-5	Record	2-4
3-4	ATS	2-4
3-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 118–111 · win probability ORL 69%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

IND 2, ORL 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

INDBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: IND 14.9%, ORL 13.6%

ORLBig

IND offense vs ORL defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

ORLSmall

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 43.1% and 46.5% of their shots

ORLSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, ORL 31.7. Allowed: IND 32.1, ORL 29.8

INDSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, ORL 68.9%

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, IND 2-2 away

ORLSmall

ORL offense vs IND defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

Even

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: IND away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 6	@ MIA	L125–145LO
Mar 8	vs CHA	L108–129LO
Mar 11	@ CHA	L108–129LO

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 5	vs UTAH	W120–117LO
Mar 9	vs PHX	W115–111WO
Mar 10	@ MIA	W121–117WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

IND 7–10 ORLORL leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · IND 8-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 23, 2025-26	IND 128 @ ORL 126	ORL -10.5	IND W
Jan 4, 2025-26	IND 127 @ ORL 135	ORL -6.5	ORL W
Dec 31, 2025-26	ORL 112 @ IND 110	IND +4.5	IND W
Apr 11, 2024-25	ORL 129 @ IND 115	IND -3.5	ORL W
Nov 13, 2024-25	IND 90 @ ORL 94	ORL -1.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Pacers 2, Magic 2, even 1

PacersBetterMagic

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

Even

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

INDSmall

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

ORLSmall

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

INDBig

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

ORLSmall

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

PacersBetterMagic

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

ORLSmall

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

Even

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

INDBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

ORL4.2 #23

IND		ORL
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.07 #21
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
34.1 #18	3-point %	35.4 #11
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
28.0 #7	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
6.9 #27	Steals per game	7.0 #26
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Magic

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Magic

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Magic